With polls mostly unchanged by verdict, Trump plays martyr while Biden pivots to other issues

With the conclusion of former President Donald Trump’s criminal trial in New York, polling data has revealed only a small narrowing of the race between him and President Joe Biden for the White House.

While the margins have narrowed in Biden’s favor, Trump appears to have retained the lead in most polling data, and his post-conviction fundraising hauls could serve to help him counter Biden’s own war chest.

The developments, moreover, have Trump characterizing his prosecution as a form of political martyrdom while the Biden camp has sought to label him a “convicted felon.” The administration’s moves on foreign affairs and the southern border just days after the conviction, however, could signal a change in strategy toward attempting to win back alienated Democratic constituencies.

"I'm a very innocent man, and it's okay, I'm fighting for our country. I'm fighting for our Constitution. Our whole country is being rigged right now," Trump said after the verdict. "This was done by the Biden administration in order to wound or hurt an opponent, a political opponent. And I think it's just a disgrace. And we'll keep fighting. We'll fight till the end, and we'll win because our country has gone to hell."

What the polls say

Trump was convicted on Thursday on 34 counts of falsifying business records. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg had brought the charges in connection with a 2016 payment Trump’s then-attorney, Michael Cohen, made to Stormy Daniels for which Cohen sought reimbursement.

Throughout the trial, Trump contended that the case was part of a politically motivated witch hunt designed to derail his 2024 bid for the White House. He has further vowed to appeal the conviction.

On May 30, the day of Trump’s conviction, he led Biden in a one-on-one matchup by 0.9% in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Since then, polling data from I&I/TIPP, Morning Consult, HarrisX, and Reuters/Ipsos has become public, revealing that Trump’s lead has narrowed to 0.5%.

The HarrisX survey, notably found that 51% of respondents viewed the myriad prosecutions of Trump as political in nature.

The race is still well within the margin of error for most surveys, and only the Reuters and Morning Consult surveys showed Biden ahead. Betting odds, moreover, still decidedly favor Trump, with his odds at 48.7% to Biden’s 39.2%.

What supporters say

After the verdict, Trump declared that “[t]he real verdict is going to be November 5th by the people.” His supporters, however, evidently sought to make their feelings known much earlier in the form of campaign contributions.

Trump’s campaign website crashed on Thursday following the verdict, due largely to the volume of attempted donations, the campaign confirmed. The Trump campaign on Friday announced that it had raised $34.8 million in small dollar donations, but later updated the total to $52.8 million. 

During a Sunday appearance on Fox News, the former president’s son Eric Trump confirmed that the figures had far exceeded that sum. “Well this might be a little inside information but as I was leaving my house about 37 seconds ago, I asked my wife ‘what are we up to now?’ And she said ‘just in terms of small-dollar, we’re well over $70 million,’” Trump said. “If you add the large dollar donations to it, you’re over $200 million.”

“And by the way Maria [Bartiromo], 30% of those people have never been seen before by a political party, right?” he went on. “I mean these are Americans who are pissed off. They’re coming out of the woodwork and they want to support a guy that they just believe is getting bamboozled by a system.”

The Trump campaign and Republican National Committee announced Monday that they had raised a combined $141 million in May.

Biden team’s initial reaction

Initially, the Biden campaign appeared poised to make the conviction and Trump’s felon status a central fixture of its campaign. Ahead of the verdict, reports emerged that the campaign had discussed plans to label Trump a “convicted felon.”

Following the verdict, the campaign began fundraising efforts, touting the message that his candidacy was the only way to “keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office.”

"Donald Trump has always mistakenly believed he would never face consequences for breaking the law for his own personal gain. But today’s verdict does not change the fact that the American people face a simple reality. There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box," said Biden campaign Communications Director Michael Tyler.

The Biden campaign does not appear to have published comparable fundraising totals.

An apparent pivot?

In recent days, the administration appears to have focused on two key issues, namely the southern border and the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.

Reports emerged this week that Biden will issue an executive order aimed at cracking down on the surge in illegal crossings at the southern border. The move would reportedly permit U.S. immigration authorities to deport illegal arrivals without processing their asylum claims.

The move would potentially serve to undercut Trump on one of his signature issues while giving the president a talking point to address his critics. Biden’s approval rating on immigration currently sits at 33.4% in the RealClearPolitics polling average. A further 62.8% disapprove of his handling of the issue. By contrast, his overall rating stands at 40.2% approval and 55.8% disapproval.

“It’s too little too late now,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said Sunday of the matter. “He’s trying to desperately show the American people that he wants to address the issue that he himself created.”

Trying to win back lost voters?

The day after the conviction, Biden addressed the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict by unveiling a proposal to end the war. The administration has faced scrutiny from both sides of the aisle over its handling of the conflict, including from the Muslim-American community and Jewish-American community, albeit for different reasons.

The issue is of particular import to the Biden campaign in light of both the Muslim-American presence in the swing state of Michigan. That community has been notably critical of the administration and previously the National Muslim Democratic Council warned the Biden campaign that its support for Israel could jeopardize its standing with that community.

"It has become evident that our voices are being ignored, but our votes will not be. Simply put, as Gaza turns red, so could crucial battleground states," they wrote in an October letter. Biden currently trails Trump by 0.5% in Michigan, according to RealClearPolitics.

“Our proposal to end the war in Gaza begins with a complete ceasefire, withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas in Gaza, the release of hostages and hostage remains, the ability for Palestinians to return to Gaza, and a surge of humanitarian assistance,” Biden announced on Friday.

Biden’s announcement appeared to leave both Israel and Hamas scratching their heads somewhat, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office insisting it had not changed its own conditions for a ceasefire and Hamas indicating it had not been informed of the proposal.

As of Monday, the proposal appears to have Israeli officials threatening to quit the government should Netanyahu accept it, with one official saying Biden’s description of a cease-fire proposal was “not accurate,” according to NBC News.

"It’s strange that they say it’s an Israeli proposal and at the same time that Israel needs to agree to it. Israel has not changed its conditions to reach a permanent cease-fire. That will only happen after our objectives are met including destroying Hamas’s military and governing capabilities,” the official said.

Just the News has sought comment from the White House and the Trump campaign.

Ben Whedon is an editor and reporter for Just the News. Follow him on X.