In battle for control of Virginia legislature, Republicans test new commitment to early voting

Early voting has become a central issue in the Virginia legislature election, which is set to conclude on Tuesday and determine whether Gov. Glenn Youngkin will have a Republican majority to pass legislation. 

The state Senate is currently controlled by Democrats, 22-18, with the state House controlled by Republicans, after winning 52 seats in 2021 to Democrats' 48, according to Ballotpedia. Republicans gained control of the state House in 2021, when Youngkin won the governorship, Winsome Earle-Sears won the election for lieutenant governor, and Jason Miyares won the attorney general race. 

The Republican Party is encouraging its voters, who have historically opted to vote in person on Election Day, to take a cue from Democrats and vote early in the Virginia election. 

Republican National Committee co-chairman Drew McKissick told the "Just the News, No Noise" TV show on Wednesday that the party’s campaign of embracing absentee balloting, early in-person voting and legal ballot harvesting is on its “test drive” in this year’s elections. 

He explained that the campaign, called the “Bank Your Vote” initiative, is “where we focus on early voting, getting more Republicans who maybe have been hesitant to vote early, who are Election Day Republicans … to get them used to voting early, getting their vote in the bank so that if they have an emergency or a flat tire or something like that, or the weather's bad on Election Day, that their votes are already in the bank.” 

McKissick added that getting more early voters gives the party “more time to focus on what we call low-propensity Republicans,” which are Republicans who “you have to poke them with a sharp stick a few times to get them to” vote. 

Scott Parkinson, a Virginia GOP Senate candidate, previously told Just the News that Youngkin and his PAC are focused on early voting. 

"Governor Youngkin and the Spirit of Virginia [PAC] have invested considerable money heading into 2023 to try to change that voting behavior and get conservatives comfortable with early voting with mail and voting, and also with [legal] ballot harvesting," Parkinson said. The PAC has received $18,781,158 in donations in 2023, almost three times as much as in 2022.

If Republicans win control of the state legislature, then conservative policies such as Youngkin’s proposed a 15-week abortion ban could be passed, meaning Virginia would no longer be the least-restrictive southern state on abortion, ABC News’s "538" reported. 

Between late September and mid-October, three surveys were conducted that showed Virginia Democrats with a nominal advantage in the Nov. 7 election, but are all within the margin of error for each poll. 

Democrats were up by two percentage points, according to The Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School from mid-October. The Wason Center at Christopher Newport University found that likely Virginia voters are one percent more likely to vote for the Democrat in their district for the General Assembly than the Republican, with percentages at 42% to 41%.

A poll from the Wason Center also found that Youngkin’s job approval rating is at 55%. 

In mid-October, the Founder Insight Policy Research poll, which was started by a former Youngkin aide, found that the two parties were tied at 50%, but had undecided voters to choose a side. 

If Republicans maintain the majority in the state House and gain control of the state Senate, then it will be the first time since 2013 that the GOP has had the governorship and both chambers of the legislature, according to ABC News’s 538. In 2019, Democrats gained control of the state legislature and governorship for the first time since 1993, the outlet also reported. 

According to the Virginia Public Access Project, six days before Election Day, 52.9% of in-person early votes were Democrat, compared to 40.9% for Republicans. This was an increase of 2.3% for Republicans compared to the same time last year. 

As for fundraising, Democrats have raised nearly $44 million for the state House elections and nearly $47 million for the state Senate, while Republicans have raised nearly $34 million for each chamber, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. 

Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Just the News on Thursday about how the state legislature races are shaping up. 

“The House is probably a toss-up but the playing field is a little better for Democrats in the Senate,” Kondik said. “The Democrats can get to a majority just by winning seats that Terry McAuliffe won in the 2021 governor race plus just a single Youngkin-won seat, most likely District 31 in Loudoun County, which voted for him by less than a point. There are a couple of other highly competitive Youngkin-won seats. So the path is just a bit clearer for Democrats, at least in the Senate.” 

While early voting may be a “smart” move for campaigns, Kondik said that he doesn’t believe it has a significant impact on the election outcome. 

“Campaigns are smart to try to bank as many votes early as they can, but keep in mind that Virginia's voting rules were the same in 2021 as they are now, and any skepticism of early voting by Republicans back then didn't prevent the GOP from having a great election. I think the method of voting can be overrated in determining outcomes,” Kondik explained. 

He also said that this election isn’t a bellwether for the 2024 presidential election. 

“Even if Republicans win both chambers, Virginia is still a Democratic-leaning state at the federal level, and we need to be careful about predicting elections based on off-year results,” Kondik added. “But obviously who controls the legislature is important, and a GOP sweep would give the governor much more ability to implement his agenda over his final two years in office.”