The nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved four Senate races Monday toward Democrats as the nation gears up for the 2026 midterm elections, but noted that Republicans are still favored to keep their majority in November.

The report moved the North Carolina race to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis and Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff's Georgia reelection race from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democrat," and shifted an Ohio Senate race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up." 

It also moved Nebraska Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts reelection race from "Solid Republican" to "Lean Republican." 

“With an increasingly sour national environment for Republicans, the Senate battlefield is shifting in Democrats’ favor,” Cook Political Report's Jessica Taylor wrote. “But due to the difficulty of the map, winning back a majority still remains a tall order. The GOP remain the narrowing favorites to retain the upper chamber. However, that outlook could change in the coming months.”

Taylor claimed that the "likeliest outcome” is Democrats winning at least one of the seats, and possibly three, but not the four they would need to flip control of the upper chamber. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority.

“At the core of the GOP’s problems is President Donald Trump and his dipping approval ratings,” Taylor wrote. “Nothing he has done lately has boosted his party’s prospects — including an unpopular military action in Iran that sent gas prices skyrocketing, even as he has dismissed voters’ concerns about affordability.

“We concede that these ratings changes are coming as Trump is at a new polling low and still navigating a yet-to-be-resolved war in Iran,” she added. “So, it’s possible things could rebound for his party or that they could find a rallying cry to get his base out in November — a summer Supreme Court retirement certainly wouldn’t hurt.”

There are 13 Democratic Senate seats up for reelection in 2026 and 22 Republican seats, including in solid red states like Louisiana, Montana and Tennessee. 

Two of the races will be special elections. The first is to fill the rest of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's term in Florida and the other is to fill Vice President JD Vance's term in Ohio. 

Republican Sen. Ashley Moody replaced Rubio and Republican Sen. Jon Husted has replaced Vance.

Misty Severi is a news reporter for Just The News. You can follow her on X for more coverage.