Is Joe Biden the John McCain of 2020?

The South Carolina Democratic primary breathed new life into presidential candidate Joe Biden’s campaign, much like Republican John McCain’s 2008 campaign revived from near-collapse following a crucial New Hampshire primary victory. Onlookers seeing multiple parallels between the men are now wondering if Biden could be McCain 2.0, which wouldn’t bode well for Biden in November’s general election.

In 2008, political observers had written off McCain, when the late senator from Arizona defied expectations in New Hampshire, just as Biden flailed this cycle through poor debate performances and thumpings in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. But Biden clawed his way out from the political dustbin in South Carolina, thanks in part to a key endorsement from civil rights veteran Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), which gave him momentum heading into Super Tuesday’s dominant victories. 

With rivals Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Mike Bloomberg subsequently dropping out, the former vice president is now well-positioned to win the party nomination after sweeping ahead of rival Bernie Sanders in the race for delegates and seizing a commanding lead in the combined popular vote. 

“Bounce Back Joe trampolined into a temporary delegate lead that, even if California gives it back to Bernie when the counting is finished, was as impressive an impersonation of Lazarus as politics has seen since John McCain got back into the 2008 hunt after carrying his bags forlornly through many an empty baggage-claim area in 2007,” wrote conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt in a Washington Post column. “But while I was wrong about McCain getting the GOP nomination in 2008, I was right when I repeatedly proclaimed that he would prove a terrible candidate in the general election. And he was. As will be Biden if he survives the hairpin turns ahead and gets in the ring against Trump.” 

As the Democratic Party coalescences behind Biden, many Sanders supporters are crying foul, claiming that the Democratic establishment will lose for failing to appreciate an outsider. The brand of party-bucking independent was one that McCain claimed during his failed 2000 race for the Republican nomination, only to then assume the role of party elder in 2008. 

Many Republicans supporting McCain during his 2000 race were attracted to his firebrand “maverick” label only to cool on the senator in 2008. Observers like the New York Times’ Mark Leibovich have wondered if Biden is also “past his prime.”

After a bruising intraparty conflict in 2016, the question Democrats must grapple with in 2020 is whether they are risking losing the general by settling for a more “establishment” candidate because it was simply "his turn" to get the nomination, even though there were younger candidates chomping at the bit, just as in 2008. Democrats in 2008 chose to go with the younger, less-experienced Barack Obama, who proved victorious over McCain.

“The political parties are pretty good about giving their bigwigs the example of ‘It’s your turn,’” Fran Coombs, managing editor of Rasmussen Reports told Just the News. “[John] Kerry is a classic example, just like McCain and Hillary [Clinton]. It was just ‘their turn.’” 

Biden must also answer questions around electability. The Web site ElectionBettingOdds.com today places President Trump with a 56-35 lead over Biden in the general election. Satirist Chris Cannon recently lampooned Biden, writing that “Joe Biden is now the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party and the ‘man to beat,’ following a primary win in South Carolina that only took him a third of a century to achieve.”

Scott Rasmussen, editor-at-large for Ballotpedia.org, told Just the News that the Biden-McCain comparison hinges on how the economy turns this year with market gyrations due to fears about the global economic impact of the coronavirus. 

“I believe the biggest connection is the impact of the economy,” Rasmussen said. “McCain was fighting an uphill battle all year, but it became impossible with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in mid-September. McCain further hurt his chances by fully embracing the bailouts, but I don't think there was any way for him to win once the financial crisis began to unfold. This year, things could head in a different direction. With a strong economy, Joe Biden would have a very difficult time defeating President Trump. However, if the coronavirus fallout and other factors cause an economic decline, Biden's prospects will go up.”

Despite stock market uncertainties in recent weeks due to the coronavirus, the Trump administration still is presiding over record low unemployment and strong GDP growth, leaving Republicans confident that whoever emerges from the Sanders-Biden matchup will face an economic juggernaut.

"There are no good options for Democrats when running against the greatest economy in generations and a president who follows through on bringing real change to Washington,” Republican Party spokeswoman Elizabeth Harrington told Just the News. “Whichever Democrat swamp creature emerges, they won't stand a chance."