Latest election forecasts point to sizable GOP House majority
Republicans could have a majority of 228 seats, according to the latest election forecast from Cook Political Report, while Fox News predicts as many as 232 seats with Nov. 8 fast approaching.
The Facts Inside Our Reporter’s Notebook
The latest forecasts point to a sizable House majority for the GOP after the Nov. 8 election.
The current makeup of the Democratic-led House is 221-212. The most recent generic ballot polling less than 3 weeks before the election favors Republicans nationally.
President Biden's low approval rating, the declining stock market and record high inflation are all factors that could drive a GOP takeover of Congress in November.
"The Republicans are almost certain to win the House, the only question is how many seats," pollster Scott Rasmussen told Just the News.
The Cook Political Report estimates that 188 seats are solid Republican, 11 are likely Republican and 12 are leaning Republican. Of the 28 toss-up races, 10 are currently Republican seats, and 21 are Democrat seats. If the GOP can hold on to those 10 seats, their majority would be 221.
FiveThirtyEight has 197 seats as solid Republican, 15 as likely Republican, 6 as leaning Republican and only 11 as toss-ups.
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball forecast, which is produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, has 187 safe GOP seats and a total of 214 when factoring in seats likely or leaning Republican.
Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, projects that the GOP will flip Florida's 4th District, Florida's 7th, Georgia's 6th and Tennessee's 5th, netting them four seats, already enough for a 218 majority in the 435-member House. Sabato's forecast rates 26 races as toss-ups, including 6 GOP seats and 20 Democrat seats.
According to Politico's election 2022 forecast, "there are two vacancies in seats where GOP candidates are favored to win in November," which leaves them only 4 seats away from the 218 needed to flip the House, assuming they hold onto the current 212 GOP seats.
"Though the political environment does not seem quite as strong for Republicans now as it did in the spring, they still have a modest enthusiasm advantage, and President Joe Biden remains unpopular," Politico pointed out.
Fox News' Power Rankings predicts a 15-seat GOP House majority of 232 to 203 Democrat seats.
"That is a small shift in favor of the GOP since the previous forecast," according to an analysis of the Fox News rankings. "Notably, if Republicans have a good night in November (in other words, if they win all the most competitive House races), the party would win 248 seats, or a 31-seat majority."