Major election forecaster continues increasing odds for GOP control of Senate

Democratic chances have been declining for over a month according to 538.

Updated: October 20, 2022 - 12:49pm

A major election forecaster continues to downgrade Democratic chances to hold the U.S. Senate, signaling a potentially crippling blow to both Joe Biden and the Democratic party ahead of the 2022 midterms. 

Analyst outfit 538 in its 2022 Senate election forecast still lists Democrats as favored to win the Senate roughly three weeks out from the election, by a comfortable 59/41 margin.

Yet that advantage has declined notably in recent weeks. For roughly a month since mid-September, 538 has been downgrading Democratic chances at holding the upper chamber. On Sept. 20 they had placed Democratic odds at 71/29. 

"Democrats currently have about a 2-in-3 chance of holding onto the Senate and even an outside shot at picking up enough seats to eliminate the filibuster," the forecaster says on its website. "However, Republicans have plenty of opportunities for pick-ups, especially in Nevada and Georgia (though it remains to be seen how Herschel Walker’s scandals will impact the race)."

"Democrats, meanwhile, appear to be on firmer footing in Arizona and could even pick up a seat in Pennsylvania," the website noted, though it pointed out that the Pennsylvania race "has tightened somewhat amid Republican attacks on John Fetterman’s health."

Historically, midterm elections have served as a reliable rebuke of the party that controls the White House that year. In only two federal elections in nearly the past 100 years has a president's party picked up seats in both houses during a midterm election.