New poll shows majority of Californians favor Newsom recall, YouTuber over Elder

A new poll shows a majority of Californians will say "yes" to next month’s ballot question on removing the state’s governor: "Should Gavin Newsom be recalled?"

The poll from Survey USA and the San Diego Union Tribune found 51% of respondents were in favor of recalling Newsom, while 40% want him to remain governor. The question was posed to 1,100 Californians from Aug. 2 to Aug. 4, according to SFGate.

The joint survey in May found 36% in favor of the recall and 47% opposed.

Newsom faces a recall as a result of a success petition drive to get the question on a ballot initiative, largely driven by residents’ dissatisfaction with how the governor has handled the pandemic, including having ignored his own health-safety mandates when attending a birthday dinner at a fancy Napa Valley area restaurant.

Unlike a recent UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Time poll that was weighted by whether the respondent was likely to vote in the Sept. 14 recall election, the Survey USA one carried no such weight, SFGate also reports.

The Berkeley/Los Angeles Time poll found double-digit opposition to the recall, but a dead heat when weighted by likelihood to vote. Polls have consistently shown a large enthusiasm gap, strongly suggesting Republicans are more likely to turn out.

The second on the ballot next month, and posed to respondents in the new poll is: “Which candidate should replace Newsom if he loses question one?”

YouTuber Kevin Paffrath, a Democrat, 27% support, followed by conservative radio host Larry Elder, who led three separate polls released in recent weeks, at 23% support.