Tester up 5 points in Montana Senate race that could determine control of chamber: Poll

Sen. John Tester, D-Mont., is currently holding a narrow lead in the Montana Senate race, which could determine control of the chamber, according to a new survey conducted by pollster Scott Rasmussen’s Napolitan News Service.

The survey of registered voters, released on Thursday, found that Tester is ahead of his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy 49% to 44%.

“Donald Trump holds a 53% to 35% lead over Kamala Harris in the presidential race [in Montana]. Sixteen percent (16%) of Trump voters currently plan to vote for Tester," read an analysis of the results. "On top of that, if Montana voters knew that their vote would determine control of the U.S. Senate, 55% would vote for the Republican, and just 37% would vote for the Democrat."

In the survey, 17% of Tester’s voters said they would prefer GOP control of the U.S. Senate overall. 

“During the fall of a presidential campaign season, downballot races generally shift to some degree in the direction of the state’s presidential preference. In this case, that means the numbers are likely to shift in Sheehy’s direction, but by how much is unknown,” the news service reported.

The analysis noted that the GOP would have 50 Senate seats if the party wins the Senate race in West Virginia.

“If Donald Trump wins the presidential election, that would give the GOP control of the Senate. If, however, Kamala Harris is elected president, the GOP would need one more seat to win control. Of the several races considered tossups or competitive, most are leaning towards the Democrats at this time,” the Napolitan News Service analysis pointed out. “Montana is likely the best opportunity for Republicans and the biggest risk for Democrats.”