DOE’s transmission planning study requires a grid expansion that could take more than 2,000 years

The Department of Energy released its long-awaited transmission expansion planning study. Under the current policies, the report concludes, the U.S. would expand the existing transmission system by 2.1 to 2.6 times its current size. Under a policy model that achieves a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 and 100% reduction by 2050, the U.S. would need to expand its current transmission size by 2.4 to 3.5 times, a goal experts say is improbable.

Critics say the DOE’s transmission plans are lacking in thorough analysis and full of assumptions that are entirely unrealistic. It’s a similar pattern that’s been a hallmark of the Biden-Harris administration’s regulations. This includes the EPA’s power plant rule, that analysts say will result in widespread blackouts and relies on unproven carbon capture, and the EV mandates, which have suffered from consumer rejection and poor infrastructure planning. 

The DOE transmission planning study claims that the added capacity would save $1.60 to $1.80 for every dollar invested on transmission, but this is based on levelized cost of energy, a metric that doesn’t factor in the costs of creating reliable power with wind and solar, which are intermittent energy sources that turn on and off mostly randomly. Once those costs are factored in, wind and solar are very expensive.

Permitting realities

Lee Cordner, a power-grid consultant with 50 years experience, told Just The News that expecting to expand the U.S. transmission network by those factors in the timeframes it proposes isn’t realistic. He said one of the biggest impediments to such a plan is, ironically, the federal agencies that would be involved in the permitting process. 

“It looks to me like what they’re trying to set up here is a giant pissing contest between federal agencies,” Cordner said. 

He said the second major obstacle is the Native American tribes, and it’s hard to plan one of these high-voltage lines that doesn’t go through an Indian reservation. Other obstacles are private landowners, who will want to negotiate the highest values for their right-of-way access. The railroads can also present challenges, as they own land on either side of the tracks. That doesn't even include environmentalists and NIMBY residents who often challenge any permits.

“They also figured out what a right of way is worth,” Cordner said. 

Decades of delay

It’s not hard to see permitting creating extensive delays with current transmission line projects. The 700-mile Transwest transmission project, which will transport wind energy from Wyoming to other western states, began initial applications in November 2007. In April 2023, it received the final permits to begin construction, and according to the company’s timeline, construction will be finished sometime before 2029. That's 22 years of bureaucracy before the project will come to life.

The 520-mile Sunzia transmission line running between New Mexico and Arizona will also support wind power. That project began planning in 2006, and received state approval in 2016, despite opposition from environmental groups. Inside Climate News reported in May that "Southern Arizona tribes and San Pedro Valley residents continue their legal challenges to halt construction of the largest renewable energy project in U.S. history." 

The project faced recent opposition from the Tohono O'odham Nation and San Carlos Apache Tribe, who sued to block the project, arguing it threatened a valley that has cultural significance. The Center for Biological Diversity, which advocates for an energy transition, also joined the suit to block the project. In April, the suit was thrown out. Barring other legal challenges, the project is expected to begin operations in 2026.

Net zero would take 2,247 years

Exactly how many miles of transmission lines would need to be built according to the DOE planning study is hard to determine. The study uses terawatt-miles for its planning models, which it says accounts “for both the capacity and the distances of all transmission.”

In February, the DOE published a draft of a “National Transmission Needs Study,” which looked at how much transmission capacity the nation would need. Energy expert Robert Bryce dug into the report, which estimates that the U.S. needs to build 47,300 gigawatt-miles of power lines by 2035. 

In a piece on his Substack, “47,300 Gigawatt-Miles From Nowhere,” Bryce calls it a “bastard metric.” As he explains, it’s mixing metric units with imperial ones, like saying “liter-inches.” Bryce then documents his efforts trying to decipher exactly what this metric is, even using AI, and ultimately gives up. Cordner said he wasn’t sure what the metric is either or how to convert it into total miles of transmission. 

In the needs study, the DOE states that the grid needs to expand by 57%. Exactly how many miles of high-voltage transmission lines there are depends on what source you ask. Bryce used an estimate of 240,000 miles to conclude that the U.S., according to the DOE, would need 136,800 miles of new lines, an expansion of 1,700 miles per year. At the current rate, Bryce wrote, it would take 80 years to achieve the DOE’s targets. 

A 2020 DOE study estimates that there were 642,000 miles of high-voltage transmission lines. To grow that by 3.5 times, as the latest DOE planning study calls for, would require 2,247,000 miles of transmission lines by 2050. That’s 86,423 miles every single year. 

In 2023, the U.S. added 55 miles of high-voltage lines, according to a report by grid strategies. This was down from an average of 925 miles per year between 2015 and 2019. Just using an optimistic 1,000 miles per year, it will take the U.S. over 2,247 years to build the 2.2 million miles of transmission lines to reach net zero emissions. On the lower end of growth — 2.4 times increase — the U.S. would need to build 1.54 million miles of high-voltage transmission lines by 2050, which would take, at 1,000 miles per year, 1,540 years. 

"It can’t happen"

The reason so much transmission capacity is needed is solely to accommodate wind and solar farms. Because they require large amounts of land, they are built wherever developers can find the land and the population that won’t fight the approvals. These intermittent generators then need to be connected to where the energy is being consumed. Gas-fired and coal-fired power plants, as well as nuclear plants can be built with far less land and closer to population centers where the energy is consumed.

The high-end estimate of 1,000 miles per year is likely overly optimistic. As Bryce explains in a recent article on his Substack, transformer costs are rising as are the lead times. The cost per mile of new high-voltage transmission lines has increased from $1.4 million in 2008 to nearly $4 million in 2023. Add to all this are labor shortages.

“There is no way these plans to expand the high-voltage transmission network in the United States will happen in time frames. It won't happen because it can't,” Bryce told Just the News.

In some cases it can be much higher. Cordner said one 250-mile transmission line in California will be crossing some mountain ranges, so the towers will be placed with helicopters. The project is estimated to cost $6 billion.

“Whatever metrics they use — gigawatt mile, terawatt mile — the costs are going to be staggering, and all of this is going to have to be paid for by the ratepayer,” Bryce said.