Venezuelan threats to its neighbor highlights questions about Biden’s foreign and energy policies

Less than two months since the Biden administration negotiated a deal with the socialist Venezuelan government that would ease sanctions blocking the country from selling its oil, election issues and tensions with Guyana threaten to unravel the agreement.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro agreed to lift bans on opposition candidates in the Venezuelan presidential elections, and by Nov. 30, Maduro was supposed to release political prisoners and “wrongfully detained” Americans.

Immediately after the agreement was finalized, the Venezuelan supreme court suspended the presidential primary process for the party challenging Maduro. This week, the Venezuelan government ordered the arrest of people connected to oppositional presidential nominee Maria Corina Machado’s campaign. And Venezuela may invade its neighbor, Guyana.

President Joe Biden’s energy policy has sidelined domestic oil and gas producers while negotiating with members of OPEC to increase their oil production. It’s a policy that the U.S. oil and gas industry has criticized as shifting petroleum operations to foreign countries with poor records on human rights, and low labor and environmental standards.

Tim Stewart, president of the U.S. Oil and Gas Association, said the developments in Venezuela over the past six weeks affirms that.

“The Administration must not have made their expectations clear on what constitutes fair elections. They apparently forgot to include the ‘don't annex your neighbor and take their oil’ clause,” Stewart told Just The News.

Disputed region

Essequibo is a region of Guyana bordering Venezuela, and it contains about two-thirds of Guyana's total territory and 13% of its total population. Essequibo has been a matter of dispute between the two countries for over a century, and international arbitration has granted authority over the territory to Guyana since the late 1800s, a ruling that’s been affirmed many times since.

Exxon located large reserves of oil in Guyana in 2015 — approximately 11 billion barrels — and it became a cornerstone of the company’s long-term strategy.

The merger of Chevron and Hess Corp. had a lot to do with Hess’ partnership in a massive Guyana offshore oil project.

Development of Guyana’s offshore oil fields has the potential to make Guyana a major oil-producing country, according to Bloomberg. On Sunday, Maduro held a referendum, and Venezuelan authorities say voters overwhelmingly agreed that the country has a legitimate claim to the territory.

Immediately following the vote, Maduro gave ExxonMobil and other producers operating in Essequibo 90 days to stop their operations, and he ordered Venezuelan officials to start granting licenses to Venezuela’s state-owned companies.

The dispute has drawn national attention, and a growing concern that Venezuela will invade Guyana. The U.S. Embassy in Guyana issued a statement Thursday that the Guyana Defense Force and U.S. Southern Command are conducting drills, including flight operations within Guyana.

“The U.S. will continue its commitment as Guyana’s trusted security partner and promoting regional cooperation and interoperability,” the embassy said.

Erik Prince, founder of the private U.S. military company Blackwater, told Just The News that Maduro will try something. Whether that’s an all-out invasion isn’t certain.
“They're gonna amp up the pressure, and if nothing else, it's negotiating with different tactics,” Prince said.

France 24 reported on Friday that Maduro and Guyanese President Irfaan Ali agreed not to use force against one another "in any circumstances." Neither country, however, agree to settle their dispute over the Essequibo, leaving the matter unsettled.

Political distraction

With 304 billion barrels of proven reserves, Venezuela has plenty of its own oil to produce. After the Venezuelan supreme court suspended the primary election process of Maduro’s competitors, the U.S. began contemplating the prospect of reimposing sanctions. Hostilities towards its neighbors won’t make that prospect less likely.

Prince said he believes Maduro is trying to create a distraction from the upcoming election.

“The very strong showing by [oppositional presidential nominee] Maria Corina Machado spooked them. So they dust off 120, 130 year old land dispute to rally Venezuela attention towards that, instead of letting people focus on the corruption and just how far Venezuela has back slid under socialist rule,” Prince said.

On an episode this week of “Off The Leash With Erik Prince,” Prince said that Biden wanted to ease the sanctions against Venezuela because he’d failed to get OPEC to agree to a delay in production cuts and still needed to get inflation down. But he doesn’t see the Biden administration doing much to stop Maduro should the president take action against Guyana.

“I think they'll make all kinds of diplomatic amendments and noise. But if it comes down to it, there will be no credible application of power to deter Maduro,” Prince said in an interview, adding that it’s been an ongoing problem with U.S. foreign policy for the last three years.

The Biden administration, Prince said, has taken negotiation as its first tactic when it's dealing with adversaries of the U.S., whether that’s Iranian proxies, the Taliban or Hamas.

American interests

Energy writer and analyst David Blackmon, author of “Energy Absurdities,” told Just The News that he believes that Chinese interests may be playing a role in the conflict. After the agreement to lift sanctions was announced, China resumed purchasing oil from Venezuela, Reuters reported.

“It's a shame because Venezuela probably has more oil reserves than any country, certainly in the Western Hemisphere, but this is what socialists do,” Blackmon said.

He also believes that, because the Biden administration has an interest in keeping the oil flowing from Venezuela, it will act to protect those interests.

“The Biden administration is all in favor of putting more oil onto the global market, just as long as it doesn't come from the United States.I suspect we'll move to protect it,” Blackmon said.

On the “Off The Lease” episode, Prince said the oil companies operating in Guyana aren’t particularly concerned about the situation because it doesn’t matter to them which country issues them the oil and gas leases.

In an interview, Prince said that a Venezuelan invasion of Guyana could have significant ramifications for the globe if action isn’t taken. He said every country has to be responsible for what happens in its own borders, and he hopes the leaders of Guyana act smart in dealing with Venezuela.

“I think the diminution of American credibility and deterrence will have knock-on effects for almost a generation around the world,” Prince said.