Global warming will result in 2.5 million fewer elderly deaths over the next 50 years: report

The report looked specifically at the Medicare population, and it assumes that communities will take steps to adapt to rising temperatures, including an increase in the use of air conditioning.

Published: September 15, 2026 8:27am

Global warming will decrease deaths in older adults and reduce overall emergency room spending, according to a new Congressional Budget office report. 

Approximately 2.5 million temperature-related deaths among the Medicare population will be avoided through 2075, the CBO says

The report explains that cold days increase emergency department visits and spending in the coldest and hottest regions. In moderate climates, these outcomes are reduced.  Hot days increase deaths in cold and moderate regions, and cold days increase deaths in hot regions.

Accounting for adaptation, hotter temperatures are projected to reduce emergency room visits and spending in cooler regions, increase both outcomes in regions with moderate climates, and increase emergency room visits but reduce spending in the hottest regions, according to the report. 

"In total, ED [emergency department] visits would increase by 18 million, ED spending would decrease by $55 billion, and mortality would be reduced by 2.5 million through 2075," the report states. 

The report looked specifically at the Medicare population, the government health program for adults 65 and older, and it assumes that communities will take steps to adapt to rising temperatures, including an increase in the use of air conditioning. 

 

 

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