Trump leads Biden, but Biden leads Haley in vital swing state Michigan: Poll

Former President Donald Trump is five points ahead of President Joe Biden in Michigan, but when Trump is replaced with Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley, she comes in nine points behind Biden, according to a new poll that shows the tense stakes for the 2024 presidential race in the vital swing state.

Trump, the likely 2024 Republican presidential nominee, would lead Biden 42% to 37% if the election were held this month in Michigan, according to a Fox News Poll released Wednesday. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., would come in third place with 11%, while candidates Cornel West and Jill Stein would each receive 3% or less of the vote.

Data by Fox News, Chart by JTN

Fox News Michigan Presidential Poll

Meanwhile, if Trump and Biden are placed head-to-head in Michigan, Trump's lead is much more narrow, putting him within the margin of error of beating Biden. Trump would have 47% and Biden would come in with 45%, while the margin of error for the survey is 3%. 

Haley is nearly 60 points behind Trump on average in Republican primary polls, according to FiveThirtyEight, but if the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations became the GOP candidate, she would face a difficult battle to win Michigan.

Biden would beat Haley 35% to 26% and Kennedy would come in at 23% in Michigan, the poll showed. Meanwhile, 7% of respondents said they would support West, Stein or someone else and 10% said they won't vote or they don't know who they would support. 

If the race comes down solely to Haley and Biden, Haley comes out ahead by one point at 43% to 42%, per the poll. 

This poll was conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, with 1,106 registered Michigan voters from Feb. 8-12, 2024.

Trump was the first Republican to win Michigan's presidential election in nearly three decades with his 2016 victory, but Biden won the state in 2020. 

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