Trump cuts Biden's lead almost in half, gains 13 points among independents since last month
All of the gains came from male voters. In both polls, Trump trailed by 14 points among women. However, a month ago, he trailed among men by nine. This month, he leads by two (45%-43%).
The Facts Inside Our Reporter’s Notebook
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump has shrunk to seven points, 46%-39%, dropping five points since last measured in the Just the News Daily Poll with Scott Rasmussen a month ago, when Biden had surged to a 12-point lead.
Trump's position improved by a net 8 points among Republicans and 13 points among independents in the new poll.
All of the gains came from male voters, Rasmussen noted. In both polls, Trump trailed by 14 points among women. However, a month ago, he trailed among men by nine. This month, he leads by two (45% to 43%).
"These numbers may reflect a positive response among GOP voters to the president's speech at Mount Rushmore," Rasmussen said. "Media commentary on the speech portrayed it as divisive, but many Republicans considered it a strong appeal to unity. The new numbers may also be partly in response to GOP voters returning in response to media criticism of the president."
Overall, it appears that Biden held a steady but modest lead in polling throughout the first five months of 2020. Then, following the killing of George Floyd and an increased focus on civil rights, the Democrat enjoyed a bounce in the polls.
"It's too early to say that the bounce is over, but this poll suggests it might be," Rasmussen said. "It's important to note that the previous JTN poll was the single biggest lead measured for Biden in any Scott Rasmussen polling. Over the past six weeks, including that poll, Biden's advantage averaged 10 points. Still, this is the president's best result in my polling since mid-May."
Just the News Daily Poll respondents were asked, "Suppose that in the Presidential Election this year, you have a choice between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden. For whom would you vote?" They responded as below:
- 39% Republican Donald Trump
- 46% Democrat Joe Biden
- 6% Some Other Candidate
- 8% Not Sure
The national survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted July 9-11, 2020 by Rasmussen, a polling veteran. Margin of sampling error: +/- 2.8% for full sample.
To see the full demographic cross-tabulations for this polling question, click below:
To see the methodology and sample demographics for this polling question, click below: