RCP flips New Hampshire Senate projection, forecasts Bolduc victory

Election forecaster RealClearPolitics has once again updated its Senate projection, predicting that Trump-backed Republican Don Bolduc will triumph in New Hampshire against incumbent Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan.

RCP currently projects that the GOP will take 54 seats in the upper chamber after the November midterm elections, giving the Republicans victories in the contested states of New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin. Of the seven states it rates as "toss ups," RCP only hands Washington to the Democrats.

Bolduc has been surging in recent weeks, prompting the GOP to inject cash into ad buys to bolster his candidacy. The RCP update follows a St. Anselm College poll showing Bolduc with a 1% lead over Hassan.

While RCP currently gives the Democrat an average 2.3% lead, the forecaster weights the average based on the past polling errors in relation to the last election. In New Hampshire, polls underestimated Republican performance in 2020 by 3.8%, hence the prediction that Bolduc will triumph by 1.5%.

Hassan has served a single term in the Senate. She narrowly defeated Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte in 2018.