President Donald Trump on Wednesday renewed hopes for a speedy end to the Russia-Ukraine War with two social media posts indicating he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to set the stage for negotiations.

Trump’s calls followed Special Envoy Steve Witkoff’s trip to Russia that saw him return home with American Marc Fogel, who had been in Kremlin custody since 2021. The president has historically maintained amiable relations with Russia, often to the consternation of the Washington establishment and his Democratic opponents, who often accused Trump of being a pawn of Putin's. However, such a relationship may soon pay off in the form of a favorable peace agreement.

While on campaign, Trump promised to end the war within 24 hours. That deadline came and passed, though few parties are likely to quibble about the timing should a ceasefire materialize in the near future. Russia’s ostensive motivation for the invasion was to prevent Ukrainian ascension into NATO, which Putin deemed a red-line for Russian national security.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on Wednesday seemed to signal that Russia would secure its primary war aim by ruling out Ukrainian membership in the alliance, as well as placing American boots on the ground in the country.

To be clear, Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. have not yet agreed on a formal ceasefire or long-term peace plan. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are slated to meet with Zelensky in Munich, though fighting is expected to continue up to and likely throughout that meeting.

“I am hopeful that the results of that meeting will be positive,” Trump said. “It is time to stop this ridiculous War, where there has been massive, and totally unnecessary, DEATH and DESTRUCTION. God bless the people of Russia and Ukraine!"

To be sure, the Russians have long expressed an interest in dialogue with the West on ending the conflict and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in December suggested the Kremlin would welcome the prospect of talks.

“If the signals that are coming from the new team in Washington to restore the dialogue… are serious, of course, we will respond to them,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in December. He did not, however, indicate at the time that Russia was prepared to concede anything significant.

Possible processes

Hegseth already made clear that NATO membership for Ukraine is out of the question, as is an American military presence in the country. On top of that, however, he suggested that Ukraine would have to cede land to Russia by saying that a return to the nation’s 2014 borders was “unrealistic.”

Speaking on the “John Solomon Reports” podcast on Wednesday, former National Security Council chief of staff Fred Fleitz said that “Ukraine is trying to find a way to keep as much of its territories as possible and force Russia to make concessions. That's going to be really hard to do in the short term. That's why Trump's position is ‘we have to stop the fighting first.’”

He further speculated that Ukraine’s recent offer of mineral resources for military aid was likely a ploy to convince the U.S. to help it reclaim land, saying “I definitely think that's what the Ukrainians are up to,” when pressed on the matter.

As to terms, Fleitz suggested the conflict would witness a ceasefire along current battle lines with minor territorial swaps and that a “long series of peace talks” would follow, likely in a non-NATO country such as Austria. Fleitz suggested that the U.S. would keep the European Union out of negotiations, “and in the meantime, we will work on security guarantees for Ukraine and rebuilding its economy.”

He separately pointed to comments from Hegseth about the need for Europeans to patrol a demilitarized zone along the current battle lines.

“What was fascinating today is that Hegseth was the first Trump official to say that there should be… European peacekeepers to dissuade Russia from invading again,” he said. “And he's very, very clear there will be no American troops in Ukraine and Europe has to pay for this, because Europe has to take responsibility for Ukraine, because it is a European conflict.”

Mineral rights for foreign aid while Russia advances

Zelensky recently floated offering the U.S. access to its mineral resources as a form of payment for its prior and continuing foreign aid. Notably, many of the rich deposits are in Russian-controlled territory or contested regions. Fleitz, for his part, suggested that the offer came from Kyiv to create an incentive for America to help it reclaim territory rather than just support its continued defense.

Talk of a ceasefire seems to come at a time of mounting Russian advantages on the battlefield, with Muscovite forces sweeping through the southern portions of Donetsk and partially surrounding the city of Pokrovsk.

Russian forces are also progressing along the Zherebets River, around Kupyansk, and toward the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, posting gains that call into question the sincerity of Russian interest in a ceasefire on current lines.

Officially, Russia has annexed four oblasts (provinces) from Ukraine other than Crimea, though it does not fully control each one. The full acquisition of those territories has long been a war aim of the Kremlin and it remains unclear whether Ukraine is prepared to concede those lands.

In the meantime, missile and drone strikes on Kyiv continue unabated and the conflict itself shows no signs of dying down.

Russia rejected a similar plan last year

The plan described by Fleitz and hinted at by Hegseth is nearly identical to a “leaked” peace proposal that emerged post-election that Russia categorically rejected. That plan called for a ceasefire along the battle lines at the time, a European-manned demilitarized zone, and a 20-year delay on Ukraine’s NATO entry.

At the time, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicated that the Kremlin had not received official communications from the Trump team about a ceasefire, but opined on the leaks and Trump’s own public statements. 

“We are not happy, of course, with the proposals made by members of the Trump team to postpone Ukraine’s admission to NATO for 20 years and to station British and European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine,” he said at the time.

Lavrov further indicated that the Kremlin viewed any sort of demilitarized zone enforced by NATO members to be a de facto admission of Ukraine to the alliance and that such a move would be unacceptable.

“However, everything that I have heard from Russians tells me that this is just as unacceptable to Moscow as NATO membership itself and would therefore make agreement impossible,” Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft Eurasia Program Director Anatol Lieven wrote in a December op-ed for Foreign Policy.