What’s at stake and what to expect in this year's Trump-Biden debate

The presidential debate on Thursday evening will mark a pivotal moment for either candidate to set the tone for the general election by either notching an early win in the public sphere or by handing the media potentially haunting viral material.

The debate will see President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump square off at CNN’s Atlanta facility and will not feature a live audience. It will further mark the pair’s first such contest since the 2020 presidential debates.

In that cycle, the pair faced off on two occasions in spectacles organized by the non-partisan Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), which is not hosting the Thursday debate. The first 2020 debate saw the pair descend into a chaotic series of interruptions while moderator Chris Wallace was unable to maintain control. 

The second debate was purportedly canceled due to moderator Steve Scully from C-SPAN making a public tweet to White House official Anthony Scaramucci and then falsely claiming his account had been hacked. Other reports say that the decision to scrap the debate came after a COVID-stricken Trump rejected plans for a virtual event, and Biden later scheduled an ABC News town hall later that evening. The final debate saw NBC’s Kristen Welker serve as moderator and exercise the authority to mute the participants’ microphones.

CNN’s Thursday debate will be moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, who may also mute the microphones of either candidate. Trump will have the last word of the night due to a coin flip. Tapper's participation and history of editorializing against Trump has raised questions of impartiality.

Here’s a look at what’s at stake and what to expect from the showdown:

Who needs it more?

Polling data and betting odds currently suggest the White House may be Trump’s to lose, with electoral map projections indicating he could clear 300 electoral votes and potentially improve upon his 2016 win against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Trump, for his part, has indicated that he accepted the debate, despite terms he deemed disadvantageous, because he believed the network thought he would not accept.

“You know, they offered me this debate and they thought I wouldn't take it because it's on CNN. It's Fake Tapper, does anyone know Fake Tapper?” Trump said at a town hall event in Arizona earlier this month. “And I said I'll take it, I'll take it -- because you know what? They thought I wouldn't take it, being on CNN and Dana Bash is very tough to Trump.”

“So I said, I'll take it. They thought what was gonna happen is that I'd say I won't do it, and then they'll say, ‘Trump doesn't want a debate.’ I want a debate,” he insisted. “We should have many debates, frankly.”

Biden, for his part, is trailing in most polls and faces mounting concerns over his physical and mental fitness for office. Though such concerns were present during the 2020 debate cycle, the past four years have seen Biden subjected to further scrutiny over his recent gaffes and awkward moments. The debate could present an opportunity to demonstrate his sustained mental acuity and physical competence for office.

Earlier this year, special counsel Robert Hur released his report on Biden’s handling of classified materials and opted against charging him, in part due to concerns that "Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”

Biden has angrily insisted his memory is “fine,” and his physical health is strong, telling a Time magazine reporter "You're looking at me, I can take you too." but speculation persists and a June poll from J.L. Partners revealed that 49% of likely voters expect Biden to forget where he is during the debate while 41% expect him to walk off the wrong side of the stage.

Will the moderators play fair with Trump?

The Trump and Biden campaigns both agreed to permit the moderators to mute their microphones during the contest, which will limit their ability to shape the debate themselves and hand greater control to the CNN personalities.

Trump’s allies and the campaign itself have made no secret of their belief that Tapper and Bash will not act in an even-handed manner and have highlighted their records of criticizing Trump. Tapper, especially, has attracted flak for his numerous on-air criticisms of the former president on issues ranging from COVID-19 to Trump’s criminal trials and more.

“On the debate stage, when Jake Tapper doesn’t like what Trump is saying, he’s just gonna mute his mic. On Thursday, it’s gonna be Trump versus the moderators and Joe Biden,” former White House Communications Director Sean Spicer said during an interview on Sky News Australia.

The network defended Tapper and Bash, saying they are "well respected veteran journalists who have covered politics for more than five decades combined."

“They have extensive experience moderating major political debates, including CNN’s Republican Presidential Primary Debate this cycle,” the network insisted. “There are no two people better equipped to co-moderate a substantial and fact-based discussion and we look forward to the debate on June 27 in Atlanta.”

What’s on the agenda?

Moderators are expected to raise questions about an array of issues and both candidates are working to fine-tune their messaging and prepare for possible curve-balls.

To prepare for the debate, Trump has participated in a handful of “policy discussions” with analysts and lawmakers to prepare him on key issues, such as the economy, immigration, abortion, and foreign affairs, CNN reported.

The campaign confirmed to Just the News last week that Trump is planning to press Biden on foreign affairs, especially the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict and Ukraine War.

“President Trump will contrast his strong record on the world stage that encouraged peace around the world with Joe Biden's weakness that has emboldened our adversaries, weakened our allies, and led to war from Ukraine to the Middle East,” Trump Campaign National Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said.

The campaign is also reportedly preparing for questions on the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, which featured in a discussion with GOP Sens. Eric Schmitt, Mo.; and Marco Rubio, Fla.; according to CNN.

Biden, on the other hand, is reportedly preparing to “trigger” Trump as a strategy to shake his opponent and weaken the Republican’s stage discipline, NBC News reported. But the campaign still wants to present Biden as the “adult in the room” and hopes to pair his efforts to encourage bellicose responses from Trump with his own presentation of policy ideas.

Could Trump announce his running mate?

Trump’s choice of running mate remains private, though the former president has said he’s made the selection and that his potential vice president will “most likely” be present at the debate, NBC News reported, leading to speculation that he could announce his selection on-the-air.

The former president has kept his choice close to the vest, but that has not stopped speculation as to the final selection and a handful of contenders have emerged as favorites for the post. Among those are Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio; former North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum; Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.; House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik; and Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C.

Vance, Burgum, and Rubio are all expected to attend the debate, Politico reported. Vance, for his part, has admitted he would feel some “disappointment” should he not be selected, but told Fox News recently that “[m]y best guess is they’re looking at me and they’re looking at a lot of other people too, and they’ll ask me if they ask me. And if they don’t, that’s fine.”

Ben Whedon is an editor and reporter for Just the News. Follow him on X.