A group of disillusioned conservative figures frustrated with the Trump administration’s prosecution of the Iran war has floated a right-wing third party committed to non-intervention and prioritizing domestic renewal. But could such a bloc actually make electoral inroads or would it merely be a spoiler for Republicans?

“We said no more foreign wars and we meant it and supported Donald Trump because he made that promise. But he’s betrayed us all,” former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., posted this month. “Our commitment is America First for all Americans, right, left, and center. The movement has begun.”

Accompanying Greene’s post was an image of her with Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, and former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent. Each of those figures has opposed the Iran war. Kent, for instance, resigned from his post this year, citing his opposition to the conflict. Massie has long been a critic of Israeli influence in the United States and has frequently displayed his opposition to the war, as well as his habit of voting against Republican spending bills, prompted President Donald Trump to back a successful primary challenger.

Hypothetical ticket takes equal percentages of partisans but hurts the GOP more

While Trump’s approval ratings have taken a nosedive amid the Iran war, it remains unclear whether disaffected Trump 2024 voters, many of whom are independents, would back a party led by figures formerly regarded as some of the most right-wing in the GOP. Some pollsters have suggested that the coalition would draw from independents that lean toward both major parties, but that it would pull more from Republicans.

“The Kent, Tucker, etc. ticket takes equal percentages of partisans but hurts the GOP more because they take more GOP-leaning indies than DEM-leaning indies,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris said.

Driving much of the impetus for an “America First” party is mounting frustration over the Iran war, which came after Trump campaigned on not starting new conflicts.

As of July, 62.7% of voters said they believed the Trump administration was too focused on foreign issues and not enough on domestic issues, according to Big Data Poll. Twenty-three percent said the administration was balancing them well, while 14.3% said the administration was too concerned with domestic priorities and not enough on foreign affairs.

“A Tucker Carlson / Joe Kent ticket would steamroll anything Democrats or Republicans could bring”: pundit says

Pollster Mark Mitchell, formerly of Rasmussen Reports, opined on Friday that the Carlson/Greene coalition represented them understanding the changing values of younger voters.

“Boomers have their PRINCIPLES (capitalism, democracy, conservatism). But the 4th turning tells us that youth will take over and rebuild society on a new set of VALUES (fairness, peace, prosperity, etc.),” he said. “Tucker fired the first shot of the 4th turning because he understands this.”

The idea of a Carlson-led presidential ticket focusing on non-intervention is not entirely new, either. Pundits have suggested since the start of the war that such a ticket would upend political norms.

“A Tucker Carlson / Joe Kent ticket would steamroll anything Democrats or Republicans could bring,” commentator Mike Cernovich said in March.

But some mainstream lawmakers have scoffed at the idea that Carlson would gain any serious traction. Speaking to School of War on Friday, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, a vocal critic of Carlson, sarcastically suggested that Carlson run with Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed. 

“That’s a great idea! And Tucker can form a unity ticket with Abdul El-Sayed. They both are apologists for the Muslim Brotherhood. They both love the Ayatollah. They both defend Iran,” he said. School of War is a public affairs and national security podcast hosted by Aaron MacLean and produced in partnership with The Free Press.

At present, the prospective party would rely heavily on the name recognition of its founding leaders, mainly Carlson and Greene. But neither currently enjoy strong favorability with the public.

Tucker Carlson currently rates only 21.1% popularity in a running YouGov tracker, compared to 46.3% disapproval. Marjorie Taylor Greene, meanwhile, fairs worse, with only 17% popularity and 41% disapproval. Thomas Massie has a lower disapproval rating of 15%, with 19% liking him. But he suffers from comparatively low name recognition. YouGov’s popularity tracker had no data at all for Joe Kent.

Third-party effects: spoilers, maybe, but not winners

Third parties have always faced considerable headwinds in the American system and a non-Republican, non-Democrat candidate for president has not won since Zachary Taylor won the 1848 election as a Whig.

The closest a third-party candidate came to the presidency in recent memory was Ross Perot in 1992. Ultimately, he did not win a single state, despite claiming 18.9% of the vote. Historians still question whether Perot took enough votes away from President George H.W. Bush to put challenger Bill Clinton at the top. The same question remains unanswered for Ralph Nader of the Green Party and Pat Buchanan of the Reform Party, who both ran third-party tickets in 2000.

Other notorious third-party campaigns included George Wallace running for president on a third-party ticket in 1968, under the banner of the American Independent Party. Eugene V. Debs never won the presidency, ran for U.S. President five times as the nominee of the Socialist Party of America. His most famous campaign occurred in 1920 when he received nearly one million votes while imprisoned in Atlanta for speaking against World War I. But no academic publications show conclusively whether they had a spoiler effect on the races.

Third parties have been moderately more successful in statewide races, with independents sometimes managing to claim top offices. Former Gov. Bill Walker of Alaska managed to win the state while running as an independent in 2014. He was, however, endorsed by the Democrats.

Ben Whedon is the Chief Political Correspondent at Just the News. Follow him on X.