United States President Donald Trump is currently in Ankara, Turkey, at the NATO Summit, bringing up discussions about where the Russia-Ukraine war stands and the possibility of a peace deal.

Retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness told Just the News on Tuesday that the summit is Trump's opportunity to “go face-to-face” with leaders who might be on the fence about a constructive peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently alluded to wishes of completing a deal.

Maness said he’s feeling “very positive” about the likelihood of a deal, and noted a recent “dynamic shift” that has made Putin much more amenable to making it happen: Ukraine’s drone attacks are increasingly reaching deeper into Russia, cutting off refineries and energy supplies.

Former Chief of Staff to the first Trump administration’s National Security Council and CIA analyst Fred Fleitz agreed with this sentiment, telling the John Solomon Reports podcast on June 25 that the war has shifted once again due to a “huge increase” in the quality and number of Ukrainian drones.

The conflict is essentially the world’s first large-scale war where drones are being used as a primary weapon instead of a supporting capability, and Ukraine has become a drone superpower in recent months: it’s projected to produce five to six million drones in 2026; an increase from about four million in 2025, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

Between December 2025 and April 2026, Ukrainian drones caused 156,735 Russian personnel losses. Russia reported that it recruited roughly 148,400 replacement troops over the same period — meaning drone-inflicted losses exceeded recruitment.

These smart drones — which NATO allies are helping Ukraine with — are specifically designed to use artificial intelligence.

“They’ve made some pretty sophisticated changes,” Fleitz added.

Ukraine’s army overall is much stronger now — 15 months into Trump’s second presidency — than it was under former President Biden, and Russia is declining, Fleitz noted. Ukraine has recently taken over Russian territory, advancing from attacking Moscow, St. Petersburg and oil facilities across the country to invading Russia-occupied Crimea, which is now experiencing a state of emergency.

“Putin must realize he will never win this war,” Fleitz said, noting that war costs are continuing to climb and that a deal between Putin and Trump is the Russian president's “only way out.”

Russia specifically “can’t keep up” because it’s now getting few to no drones from Iran, Fleitz said, and even when Iran wasn’t in the middle of its own war, Russia was still at a disadvantage because Iran’s drones were “less sophisticated” than Ukraine’s.

“The Russian people are mad at their president, that he can’t defend against this,” Maness added. 

However, he doesn't believe Ukraine can win the conflict, even though Zelensky could start to think otherwise as it continues gaining ground on Russia. Ukraine is fighting a 21st-century version of trench warfare with drones and assets, Maness said, and doesn’t have the capabilities or size of a ground force capable of necessary movement.

During both of his terms, Trump has looked to persuade members of NATO to increase defense spending and shift to a reduced U.S. role in defending the continent.

The president has had to do “a little bit of arm wrestling” both publicly and privately with leaders of the alliance’s countries to get them to understand that the U.S. must focus on beefing up its defense in the Western Hemisphere, specifically in terms of China, Maness said.

“We can't put all the money into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization alliance to protect Europe from a threat that just isn't as much as we think it is,” Maness continued, noting that it’s the other countries’ time to rise up, become NATO’s center of power and put up the money for their own defense while the U.S. deals with other issues.

“If we're going to keep the alliance, that's what needs to happen,” he said.

Katherine Pugh is a reporter for Just the News. Follow her on X for more coverage.