Johnson’s speaker vote rests on a razor-thin margin, with some House GOP members still undecided

The House will elect a Speaker Friday at the start of the 119th Congress, but Speaker Mike Johnson’s hold on the gavel rests on a mere two votes. 

If all representatives are present and voting at 12 p.m. Friday, Louisiana’s Johnson will need 218 votes to win. After Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned when President-elect Donald Trump nominated him to be attorney general, Republicans are expecting to hold 219 seats when Congress reconvenes Friday.

Rep. Thomas Massie. R-Ky., has already stated firmly he won’t support Johnson. Should another Republican oppose Johnson, his reinstatement will be lost. 

Trump’s support

With several members undecided, the prospect of Johnson not getting reelected is quite possible. Trump Wednesday called for Republicans to support Johnson and said he’d made calls to lawmakers to ask for their support for Johnson. Trump said that Johnson is the House member who can, more than any other, win the vote. 

“Others are very good too, but they have 30 or 40 people that don’t like them,” Trump said. 

According to Punchbowl News, Trump’s support stems from a desire to start off the new congressional session and his second term with as little discord as possible among the GOP. Johnson and Trump have been planning legislative strategies for months, and starting over with a new speaker is not ideal. 

On Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer urged Trump to reach out to the House members who remain undecided. Any delays in selecting a Speaker will also delay certification of Trump’s election victory and first actions as president, he said. 

It was a point that Johnson made on Thursday's broadcast of "Just the News, No Noise.” The certification comes just three days after the vote for speaker. “Monday is just right around the corner…We have to deliver on the America-first agenda. We’ve got a mandate to do it,” Johnson said. 

President Trump, he said, got 77 million votes from the electorate, and House Republicans got almost 75 million. 

“That’s a record for us. The message is we have to fix everything, and in order to do that — because there’s so much to fix — we got to begin on day one. So, we have to stay unified. The media, the left are trying to divide and distract us, but I think my colleagues here understand the necessity of sticking together,” the speaker said. 

Trump’s reasons for why House Republicans should vote for Johnson, Punchbowl points out, are similar to those of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s allies. The California Republican went through 15 votes before securing the gavel in 2023, only to be ousted months later. 

Situational awareness

While Johnson received unanimous support for his nomination in November, his handling of the spending bill last month is creating some hesitation for his reelection to Speaker. 

Massie argued on X that Johnson’s supporters haven’t made the case that the Louisiana Republican is a good and capable leader for the House. Instead, his supporters, Massie said, make procedural arguments.

“He already demonstrated this month that he won’t tell the President what is achievable and what is not achievable in the House, and he lacks the situational awareness himself to know what can pass and what cannot,” Massie said. 

There are several other members of the House who could potentially side with Massie on opposing Johnson’s re-election. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, Wednesday said on X that he’s still undecided, but during debate last month on the House floor over the GOP spending bill, Roy fiercely criticized the extra load Johnson’s bill would put on the nation’s already burgeoning debt. In his New Year’s Day post on X, Roy said that it’s not all Johnson’s fault, and he affirmed Thursday on Fox Business that he is still undecided. 

Rep. Victoria Spartz, R-Ind., is another holdout. On "Real America’s Voice" last week, Spartz expressed similar concerns about Johnson’s commitment to fiscal conservatism. She said for the last year that Johnson has been speaker, “Every time he folded to the swamp.” While she didn’t say she’d oppose Johnson, she demanded he make a commitment. 

“If we don’t deal with money, then everything else doesn’t matter. So, I will have a meeting with him. We had a discussion, but I don’t trust he’s going to do it. So I think he needs to publicly say what he’s going to do, and if he’s not willing to do it, then he doesn’t have courage,” Spartz said. 

Pennsylvania Rep. Scott Perry is another Republican whose vote remains uncertain. Perry told Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo that he was keeping his options open on who he would support, but said he does think Johnson has done well under pressure. He did not indicate who he could support instead.

“Right now, I think that Mike has done an admirable job under tough conditions, but I’m going to keep my options open. I want to have a conversation with Mike,” Perry said. “What members are seeking is what they think is good for the country, and they don’t see, in some cases, where Speaker Johnson has gotten us to the place where we can claim that we’ve achieved that.

A spokesperson for Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., told Axios that he hasn’t “made any public or private commitments on Speaker Johnson." Rep. Andy Harris, R-Md., said in an interview on Newsmax Monday that Johnson would need to “make some changes” or “we might need some new leadership.” 

Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., said on CNN’s “State of the Union” that he was at the time undecided, but “ultimately, it’s going to be decided who President Trump likes.” With Trump’s endorsement, Burchett’s vote may have been secured. 

Playing with fire

On ABC News “This Week,” Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y. called the decision to remove McCarthy in 2023 “stupid,” and said that ousting Johnson would be equally unwise. “The fact is that these folks are playing with fire. And if they think they’re somehow going to get a more conservative speaker, they’re kidding themselves,” Lawler said. 

On Thursday’s “Just the News, No Noise,” Johnson said he is confident that cuts can be made, and he expects to use the budget reconciliation process to accomplish that, which allows Congress to enact legislation on taxes, spending, and the debt limit with only a majority. 

“We've got to reduce the size and scope of government. Government's too big. It does too many things and does almost nothing,” Johnson said. 

He said while some parts of the budget, such as Social Security, will need to be preserved, some non-mandatory discretionary spending could be targeted such as the Biden student loan bailout, which he estimated could save $200 billion. 

"Unwinding the green New Deal and all these aspects of what the Democrats did for the last few four years will help us substantially. Then we'll be going through with the fine tooth comb the rest of the budget. So it's going to be a long, laborious process, but I think in the end, the results will be well worth it, " he added. 

Whether or not the vote for speaker Friday results in a fracturing of the Republican party remains to be seen, but unless each of these holdouts can be persuaded to side with Johnson, the Trump administration’s first days will be chaotic.