US intelligence abandons claim Iran 'not currently undertaking' nuclear weapons development

The U.S. intelligence community now reports Iran may have resumed its nuclear weapons program. This marks a shift from Office of Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) reports to Congress dating back to 2019, according to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).

In July 2024, ODNI updated Congress on Iran's nuclear weapons program pursuant to the Iran Nuclear Weapons Capability and Terrorism Monitoring Act of 2022.

The update removed the longstanding ODNI assurance that "Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device," FDD reported.

"There has been a notable increase this year in Iranian public statements about nuclear weapons, suggesting the topic is becoming less taboo," read the July 2024 update.

The update highlights the value of Iran's program to the pariah nation:

Iran uses its nuclear program for negotiation leverage and to respond to perceived international pressure. During the past year, it has modulated its production and inventory of 60-percent uranium. Tehran has said it would restore JCPOA limits if the United States fulfilled its JCPOA commitments and the IAEA closed its outstanding safeguards investigations. 

"Iran continues to increase the size of its uranium stockpile, increase its enrichment capacity, and develop, manufacture, and operate advanced centrifuges," per the update.

"Tehran has the infrastructure and experience to quickly produce weapons-grade uranium, at multiple facilities, if it chooses to do so," because of its improved enrichment capacity.

The update speculates that "Iran probably will consider installing more advanced centrifuges, further increasing its enriched uranium stockpile, or enriching uranium up to 90 percent in response to additional sanctions, attacks, or censure against its nuclear program."

Iran, per the update, has the Middle East's largest ballistic missile stockpile and highlights "improving the accuracy, lethality, and reliability" of its ballistic missiles with insights gained "from its missile and unmanned aerial vehicle attack against Israel in April."

"Meanwhile, Iran’s work on space-launch vehicles—including its Simorgh—probably would shorten the timeline to produce an intercontinental ballistic missile, if it decided to develop one, because the systems use similar technologies," per the report.

The update also notes Iran has repeatedly insisted "it is no longer constrained by any Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) limits," also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, which the Obama administration formulated.

Iran, per the update, has also "expanded its nuclear program, reduced International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring, and undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so."

The Iran Nuclear Deal provided Iran with sanctions relief in exchange for an IAEA inspections framework to ensure Iran limited itself to peaceful nuclear development.

The update's assessment of JCPOA and IAEA non-compliance, as well as an expanded non-weapons nuclear program, remains unchanged from the most recent ODNI annual report released on February 5, 2024.