Will blacks, Hispanics deliver victory for Trump?

Republicans have a dismal record with black voters.

George W. Bush got 9% of the black vote in 2000, then made a heavy outreach and soared in 2004 — to 11%. In 2012, Mitt Romney pledged to help the black community more than had President Barack Obama (who got 95% of their 2008 vote).

"If equal opportunity in America were an accomplished fact, then a chronically bad economy would be equally bad for everyone," Romney said at an NAACP speech. "Instead, it's worse for African-Americans in almost every way. The unemployment rate, the duration of unemployment, average income, and median family wealth are all worse for the Black community."

Romney ended up with 6% of the black vote.

While besting Romney's performance by a third in 2016 with 8%, Trump still failed to crack double digits. But during that campaign, Trump declared: "At the end of four years, I guarantee you that I will get over 95% of the African-American vote. I promise you. Because I will produce."

Well, that's never going to happen, but there are news signs that Trump could do better than he did in 2016, not only with blacks but Hispanics, too.

Consider the findings of a recent Rasmussen poll. "If the presidential election was held today, would you vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden?" the pollster asked. The findings were shocking: 31% of black voters said they'd vote for Trump.

The Biden camp is beginning to worry, according to one report.

"Senior officials on Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's campaign are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania with only four days until the election, according to people familiar with the matter," reported Tyler Page for Bloomberg News on Friday.

"Despite record early-vote turnout around the country, there are warning signs for Biden," according to the Bloomberg article. "In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows."

There are other troubling signs for the Democrat. In recent national polls, Biden leads by 42 points among nonwhite voters, 66% to 24%, The New York Times reported last week. That's nine points worse than Hillary Clinton's 51-point lead in the final 2016 surveys. "In a longer-term compilation of polling since June, Mr. Trump's gains appear to include both Black and Latino voters, though exact measurement of such smaller groups is challenging," according to the Times. 

Like all Democrats before him, Biden has focused on the black vote, offering a Plan for Black America that includes promises on economics, education and justice reform. That plan also includes "ensuring equal access to credit and capital" for black entrepreneurs, he says on his website.

"Tackling systemic racism and fighting for civil rights has been a driving force throughout Biden's career in public service," his campaign website says. "He has a record of fighting for and delivering for the African American community. As a U.S. Senator he co-sponsored the Civil Rights Act of 1990 to protect against employment discrimination and led multiple reauthorizations of the Voting Rights Act, protecting African Americans' right to vote."

Trump, meanwhile, has proposed the "Platinum Plan," which would create 3 million new jobs in the black community over his second term and increase access to capital by nearly $500 billion, according to his website.

The president in 2019 signed a bill to provide more than $250 million in annual funding for historically black colleges and universities after Congress refused to renew it, drawing praise from black leaders.

In another surprising development, Trump has also drawn into his camp some prominent black artists. Hip-hopper Kanye West has long been a MAGA supporter, but in recent weeks others, including Ice Cube and Lil' Wayne, have also offered support.

Ice Cube, whose real name is O'Shea Jackson, praised the Trump camp for taking interest in his "Contract with Black America," saying that campaign officials agreed to talk to him while Biden's team said they'd do so after the election. 

"Black progress is a bipartisan issue," Ice Cube tweeted. "When we created the Contract With Black America we expected to talk to both sides of the isle [sic]. Talking truth to power is part of the process. I'm willing to meet with anybody who could bring this to life and make it a reality."

The website FiveThirtyEight.com did an analysis last month that found Trump doing better with younger blacks, with support at 21% with voters under 44 in 2020, up from 10% in 2016.

And it's not just black men. "Many Latino men are supporting President Trump this election," NPR reported. "A New York Times/Siena College poll found that former Vice President Joe Biden leads by 34 percentage points among Latina voters, but with Latino men his lead is 8 points."

While Trump boasted that he'd win 94% of the black vote in 2020, he doesn't have to get anywhere near that number to upset the whole formula. 

Three scholars writing in the Political Science Quarterly wrote nearly 30 years ago, "Twenty percent appears to be the threshold Republican strategists believe will establish GOP dominance in American politics."

The number could be even lower, according to Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who is black. He said in February that if Trump were to win between 14% and 16% of the black vote in 2020, it would be "game over."

We're about to find out if that's true.