In the bare-knuckle brawl over redistricting ahead of the midterms, the Democratic leaders promised “maximum warfare” to secure an advantage over Republicans in the upcoming elections. The party came up short. 

“Maximum warfare, everywhere, all the time,” Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries described his party’s redistricting mantra last month. 

But, now it is looking more and more like that war is lost.

The Democrats’ effort to redraw maps in blue states to squeeze out more seats in the House of Representatives was dealt a major blow on Friday when the Supreme Court of Virginia declared their referendum on the commonwealth unconstitutional. 

Using race to draw congressional districts unconstitutional, U.S. Supreme Court says

This follows a United States Supreme Court ruling last month in Louisiana v. Callais that declared that use of race as a factor in drawing congressional districts is unconstitutional. That reversed a long-held tradition under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act that forced states to draw majority-minority districts which have usually resulted in electing Democrats. 

The ruling has prompted several map changes across the South that could cost Democrats between four and seven safe Democratic seats ahead of the midterm elections. 

"Huge win for the Republican Party, and America, in Virginia. The Virginia Supreme Court has just struck down the Democrats’ horrible gerrymander," President Donald Trump, who first called for redistricting last year, posted to Truth Social on Friday. 

After the Supreme Court ruling, Virginia was the Democrats’ last hope.

Democrats sought voter approval earlier this year to temporarily suspend the independent redistricting requirements of the commonwealth's constitution in order to pave the way for a congressional district map heavily slanted in favor of their party. The voters approved it by a narrow 51.69% to 48.31% margin. 

That election gained nationwide attention as the epicenter of the ongoing battle between Republicans and Democrats to redraw maps ahead of the midterms. In Virginia, Democrats placed their hopes of canceling out Republican gains in states like Florida and Ohio. The map passed by the commonwealth’s legislature would likely have given Democrats control of ten seats to Republicans' one. 

The Virginia referendum was a gamble for Democrats. In order to redraw the commonwealth’s maps, the party had to circumvent the state constitution, amended by referendum in 2020 to create the Virginia Redistricting Commission–a bipartisan body tasked with drawing the state’s maps. The Democrats needed to temporarily suspend that process with another amendment. 

Virginia's amendment process invalid

But, to do so before the midterm election, party leadership had to bend the rules of the state’s amendment process–which requires an amendment be proposed in one session, an intervening election to take place, and then voted on again in the subsequent session. The problem is that the Virginia House of Delegates voted to propose its amendment after the 2025 election was already underway, the Virginia Supreme Court ruled. This invalidated the process. 

You can read the Virginia Supreme Court’s decision below: 

“From the beginning, this was the most obvious violation of Virginia’s Constitution. [Gov.] Abigail Spanberger and Democrats in Richmond knowingly violated our constitution to disenfranchise millions of Virginians,” former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, said in a statement. “The Constitution prevailed, and Virginians will never forget this unlawful attempt to rob them of their voice in Congress.”  

Before the new Virginia maps were struck down, the redistricting battle had largely resulted in a draw. After Texas redrew its maps last year, a gain of five seats for Republicans, California responded in kind, wiping out the advantage. Then, only a handful of Republican states adjusted their maps while others vowed they would do so at some point in the future. 

But now, following the Virginia Supreme Court ruling, Cook Political Report assessed that the likeliest scenario for redistricting ahead of the midterms would place the Republican Party at a “6-7 seat” likely gain. 

Legal challenges sure to come

“Best case for GOP: picking up [about] 13 seats, if they win redrawn competitive seats in TX/FL/OH/NC, and if legal fights over new maps go their way,” Cook Political’s U.S. House Editor Erin Covey posted to X on Friday. 

These gains are by no means assured for Republicans. Several states still have to officially pass redistricting measures and all of them will likely face legal challenges to any new maps. Just this week, Florida and Tennessee passed new maps that eliminated several Democratic-leaning seats in those states. 

Louisiana, the state at the center of the Supreme Court’s race-based districts case, plans to redraw its maps to comply with the high court’s ruling, but has yet to reveal the proposed map. The state could eliminate both of its Democratic seats, or choose to toss only one. 

Alabama, Mississippi and South Carolina are also considering new legislative sessions to redraw their congressional district maps ahead of the midterm elections, but have not yet done so.