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Kari Lake has slight lead in Arizona governor’s race, poll shows

Poll finds Lake supporters are overwhelmingly behind her while Democrat Katie Hobbs’ supporters are more against Lake.

Published: October 31, 2022 7:31pm

Updated: November 1, 2022 6:21am

(The Center Square) -

If a recent poll has it right, then Kari Lake will be the next governor of Arizona.

The Republican nominee holds a two-point lead in an Arizona Public Opinion Pulse poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights. The poll shows that 49% of likely voters say they plan to support Lake, while 47% back Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, the Democratic nominee. Four percent of voters told the pollsters that they remained undecided. The poll has a four-point margin of error.

“Going into the final countdown before the big day, Lake is holding a narrow lead, but with numbers this close and neither candidate above the all-important 50% threshold, we will all have to anxiously await live reporting updates on November 8th,” OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble said in a press release.

The poll also found that most people voting (55%) for Hobbs say they are voting against Lake more so than they are voting for Hobbs. Meanwhile, about three-fourths of Lake supporters (74%) say they are voting for Lake rather than against Hobbs.

“Lake’s supporters are overwhelmingly behind her, whereas, Hobbs’ supporters are more against Lake than they are for Hobbs,” Noble said.

While Lake is ahead in the polls in her race, OH Predictive Insights has Democrats leading other statewide races.

For example, the poll has U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Arizona, up by two points over his Republican challenger Blake Masters (48% to 46%). The poll also found that Democratic Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes has a six-point advantage in the Secretary of State race over state representative Mark Finchem, R-Oro Valley (48% to 42%). And Democrat Kris Mayes has a three-point edge over Republican Abraham Hamadeh in the Attorney General race (45% to 42%).

“If one thing is clear, voters are starting to really pay attention,” Noble said. “With no candidate in a comfortable leading position, most Arizona down-ticket races will come down to one thing: the undecided voters.”

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