Betting market favors Trump in race-deciding battlegrounds

Former President Donald Trump has become the literal odds-on favorite to win the White House as betting markets increasingly assign him high chances of winning critical swing states and the race over all.

In terms of probably, Polymarket assigns Trump a 51.8% chance of winning the race overall, compared to 47.6% for Harris.

Notably, it assigns Trump considerably more favorable odds in key battlegrounds that, should he win, would carry him to the White House.

In Pennsylvania, for example, he has a 56% chance of winning, compared to Harris's 44%. In North Carolina, the split was 60% to 40% in Trump's favor. In Georgia, it was 64% to 36% while in Arizona, it was 67% to 33% in favor of Trump.

Collectively, those states carry 62 electoral votes, more than enough for Trump to clear the 270 threshold to win the presidency, barring major upsets in red-leaning states.

Polymarket still labels Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada as battlegrounds, with Harris leading each. Her margins in those states, however, are materially narrower. In Michigan, she has a 52% chance of winning to Trump's 48%. In Nevada and Wisconsin, she leads 53% to 47%.