Biden would lose to a Republican if the election were held today, latest tracking poll

Key finding in responses is unnamed Republican candidate would carry 41% of the critical independent voters, compared to 21% for Biden

Updated: January 26, 2022 - 12:23pm

The Facts Inside Our Reporter’s Notebook

A new tracking poll shows President Biden would lose to a Republican if the election were held today. 

The weekly POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows Biden would lose 46% to 37% to what pollsters refer to as a "generic" candidate should he seek reelection in 2024.

A key finding in the national tracking poll shows the unnamed Republican candidate would carry 41% of the critical independent voters, compared to 21% for Biden.

However, when Biden is pitted against a specific GOP candidate in a hypothetical, head-to-head race, the poll shows the Democrat president deadlocked with former President Trump and leading former Vice President Mike Pence, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

Biden leads Trump 45% to 44%, but the numbers fall within the poll's margin of error of 2%, effectively making the matchup a tie. Eleven percent of those respondents said they would not vote.

The poll surveyed 2,005 registered voters on Jan. 22 and 23.

In the poll's other head-to-head matchups:

  • Biden leads Pence 44% to 42%, with 14% saying they would not vote.
  • Biden leads DeSantis 44% to 39%, with 17% saying they would not vote.
  • Biden leads Cruz 45% to 39%, with 16% saying they would not vote.