Warnock up 10 points over Walker for Georgia Senate seat, Kemp and Abrams tied in gov race, poll

The numbers have shifted dramatically since January in Warnock-Walker matchup

Updated: June 30, 2022 - 9:42am

The Facts Inside Our Reporter’s Notebook


In Georgia's closed-watched Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock now leads GOP challenger Herschel Walker by 10 points, according to a new poll.

Warnock, seeking his first full term after winning the seat in a 2021 special election, leads first-time candidate Walker 54% to 44%, according to a newly released Quinnipiac University poll.

At the beginning of the year, that race appeared to be locked up with 48% of voters supporting Warnock and 49% supporting Walker. Responses to poll questions suggest a change in voter attitudes about each candidate's personal traits is reflected in the change in polling numbers.

While Warnock is perceived by a margin of 54% to 33% to be honest, Walker is perceived by a margin of 43% to 39% to be dishonest. Similar statistics are in play on traits like leadership skills, and the perception of caring about average Georgians.

The race is being closely watched in part because of the recent change in demographics and voting in Georgia, including Warnock and Democrat Jon Ossoff last year having won Senate seats held by Republicans and Republican Donald Trump having lost the state in 2020 in his bid to win a second presidential term, after having won Georgia in 2016 with over 50% of the vote.

Demographic breakdowns are also in play, according to the poll. While Warnock has the support of 61% of women voters, Walker is supported by 52% of men. Warnock currently has 88% of the support of black voters, while Walker has the backing of 62% of white voters. Warnock appeals to younger voters, while Walker appeals to the older demographic, and the two candidates split the vote evenly when it comes to the 50-64 age group.

The poll also shows that incumbent GOP Gov. Brian Kemp and Democrat challenger Stacey Abrams are in a dead heat in their race. Each candidate currently has 48% of the vote, a figure that is essentially the same as the Quinnipiac poll at the beginning of the year that showed Kemp with 49% of the vote, and Abrams with 47%. 

Demographic and party trends between the two candidates are similar to the look of the Senate race. While Abrams has the support of 55% of women voters, Kemp leads with 56% of male voters. Abrams has the backing of 83% of black voters, while Kemp is seeing support from 68% of white voters. And Abrams' voter base tilts younger, while Kemp's tilts older. 

The poll was conducted June 23-27 among 1,497 registered Georgia votes with a with a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.