Half of U.S. at risk for blackouts during extreme cold this winter, grid watchdog warns

A new report by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), which assesses the United States and Canada’s grid reliability, finds that much of the central and eastern U.S. could experience blackouts should a significant and lasting cold snap descend on the nation. 

“Electricity supplies are at risk from freezing temperatures that threaten reliable operation of BPS [bulk power systems] generators, fuel supply issues for natural-gas-fired generation, and wind and solar resource energy limitations,” the report warned. 

NERC has been warning for years that increased reliance on unreliable wind and solar threaten grid reliability, but the “2024-2025 Winter Reliability Assessment" explains that as coal resources diminish and the U.S. becomes more reliant on natural gas, pipeline infrastructure may not be adequate to ensure a secure supply to homes and generators.

With the U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipating a colder winter this year, the problem is compounded, according to the report released Thursday. 

“Natural-gas-fired power generator availability and output can be threatened when natural gas supplies are insufficient or when the flow of fuel is unable to be maintained,” the report warns. 

The areas under the greatest risk of blackouts are those where coal- and natural gas-fired power plants have been taken offline, as well as those who have limited pipeline capacity to ensure secure supplies of natural gas. 

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), which covers 15 states over the Midwest, northern Great Plains, and south-central U.S., reduced its coal- and natural gas-fired generators by 5 gigawatts since last year. NERC warns that is going to create problems should there be a serious cold snap. 

“With fewer internal dispatchable resources and increasing reliance on wind and imports, the risk of supply shortfall in winter has increased in MISO,” the report said. 

The average American home consumes approximately 899,000 watt hours per month. Homes consume electricity at different rates during different times of the day, so it’s hard to say, especially with intermittent wind and solar, how many homes could be powered with 5 gigawatts of capacity.

Five gigawatts of electricity generation running for 1 hour could power 50 million 100-watt lightbulbs for one hour. 

The Southwest Power Pool, which covers a stretch of the central Great Plains, according to the NERC report, has lost 4 gigawatts of generation capacity from last year. Of that amount, 2 gigawatts is from adjustments in wind and solar capacity, which has a lower energy value during the winter season. 

New York and New England both face increased risk of blackouts, according to NERC, due to increased dependency on unreliable wind and solar resources, as well as pipeline issues. PJM, which covers all or parts of a dozen states south of Pennsylvania, including the District of Columbia, is facing litigation over a natural gas pipeline expansion project. If the litigation shuts down the facilities, the PJM area could see problems, the report states. 

Natural gas producers, however, disputed some of the report’s conclusions, Utility Dive reports. Dena Wiggins, president and CEO of the Natural Gas Supply Association NGSA), said in a statement that its members “take a multitude of proactive measures to prepare for winter weather so that we can provide safe and reliable service to our customers.” 

A NGSA fact sheet details some of the actions the members have taken, including improved communications, increased protection of facilities and equipment, and post-event analysis to track performance and improve weatherization practices. 

During its “Winter Market Outlook Virtual Media Event” in October, the American Gas Association discussed the anticipated colder winter in combination with decreasing gas drilling rig counts. 

“Despite these numbers going down, we are still seeing healthy production coming out of the drilling rigs,” Liz Pardue, director of economic and regulatory analysis for the AGA, said. 

Lauren Scott, market and regulatory analysis for AGA, said that natural gas pipeline operators utilize a number of financial and physical mechanisms to “ensure that they're able to heat your home, not just throughout the entire winter heating season, but on the coldest day of the year.” 

The NERC report recommends that utilities complete winter readiness plans prior to December, be aware of the potential for short-term demand forecasts to underestimate demand in extreme cold events, and to implement fuel surveys to ensure adequate supplies of natural gas.