Influential report predicts rapid renewable growth worldwide, but polls and data cast doubt

The International Energy Agency (IEA) this week released its latest report on the growth and trajectory that renewable energy will take over the next six years. According to the report, the world is set to add over 5,500 gigawatts of new renewable capacity between now and 2030, which will be an increase of 70% over 2023.

Should this growth come to pass, renewable energy will make up half the global electricity demand in 2030, but data and surveys suggest the growth could be met with increased opposition.

Tripling capacity?

Hydroelectric, which environmentalists generally oppose, will account for a little more than 165 gigawatts, and bioenergy, much of which is burning wood, will account for 55 gigawatts. Much of the rest of the predicted 5,500 gigawatts by 2030 will come from wind and solar. China will account for 60% of that growth.

In 2023, the world’s wind and solar farms produce 3,934 terawatt hours of electricity. For comparison, a 100-watt light bulb requires 100 watt hours to run for one hour. A modern refrigerator uses about 4,000 watt hours per day, and the average American home consumes about 899,000 watt hours per month.

This predicted growth, according to the IEA, will increase global renewable energy capacity by 2.7 times over 2022 levels. Nonetheless it falls well beneath the goal of tripling capacity by 2030, as set by nearly 200 governments at last year’s COP28 climate conference.

“But IEA analysis indicates that fully meeting the tripling target is entirely possible if governments take near-term opportunities for action,” the report states.

It’s not clear that the IEA projections will pan out. While more than half of the total will be created in China, which is also rapidly increasing its coal capacity, non-authoritarian nations might face considerable protests as a result of land use conflicts and energy costs.

Countries and states that have pursued net-zero emissions energy goals have some of the highest electricity costs in the world, according to an analysis by the Energy Policy Research Foundation. A recent analysis by Australian-based research firm Compare The Market showed similar results.

Public support

How far the public will accept the rising energy costs needed to reach the renewable energy targets the IEA predicts is uncertain. New YouGov survey data of Americans suggests it could create a significant barrier to the industry’s growth.

The data, which won’t be released until after the election, was discussed in a recent article by Roger Pielke Jr., retired professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado at Boulder, and Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. The researchers are working on a study, they explain on their Substacks, that compares “scientific understandings of energy and climate with dominant public narratives on these issues and how both compare to the views of actual voters.” The YouGov survey is part of that study.

According to the survey, while an “all of the above” approach to energy that includes fossil fuels, renewables, and nuclear is popular among both Democrats and Republicans, a rapid transition to renewable energy is only supported by less than a quarter of those surveyed.

Only half of those surveyed would spend even $1 monthly fee on their electric bill to fight climate change. At $40, support drops to 19%. Residents of California, which has some of the highest rates of electricity derived from renewables in the U.S., pay nearly twice the U.S. average, according to the Energy Policy Research Foundation, and Germany, considered the world leader in net zero efforts, pays three times as much, far more than a $40 monthly fee. The same is true of Britain, Ireland and Belgium.

Industries are also impacted by the crushing energy costs. Across Europe, industries are shutting down and economies are starting to suffer.

Land use conflicts could also stand in the way of the growth of wind and solar. A database maintained by energy expert Robert Bryce of renewable energy projects rejected, most often as a result of local opposition. Since 2014, the number of rejections has grown from 1 in 2014 to 739 so far this year. A Columbia University study published this summer found that opposition to renewable energy is growing, creating a “significant barrier” to expansion of wind and solar farms.

Much of this data is focused on the U.S., and expansion of renewable energy might face less opposition in the other 199 countries that set goals at COP28. But assuming energy costs and land-use conflicts turn public support in other democratic countries, the IEA’s predictions may not be realized.