How RFK Jr.'s campaign could end, and who benefits from it

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., is slated to address the nation on Friday amid rumors that he plans to withdraw from the race. While some reporting has suggested he plans to throw his support behind former President Donald Trump, such a plan is far from definite and Kennedy has multiple paths forward that could have significant implications for both Trump and Vice President Harris.

Kennedy has for weeks attracted speculation that he may drop out and endorse one of the major candidates in exchange for a role in their administration. He currently boasts 4.5% support in the RealClearPolitics polling average, which nearly triples Vice President Kamala Harris’s current 1.6% margin over former President Donald Trump in that metric.

Ahead of his Friday announcement, Kennedy reportedly approached both camps about a possible deal, though neither meeting resulted in a public agreement or endorsement. The Harris campaign, for its part, bluntly repudiated Kennedy, who previously challenged President Joe Biden for the party nod before opting for an independent run.

“No one has any intention of negotiating with a MAGA-funded fringe candidate who has sought out a job with Donald Trump in exchange for an endorsement,” Democratic National Committee spokesperson Matt Corridoni told Just the News earlier this month.

But the Trump campaign was evidently more accommodating and video footage leaked of Trump himself seemingly expressing openness to offering Kennedy a spot in the administration.

Whether Kennedy throws his support behind Trump, another candidate, or remains in the race, his announcement Friday is sure to prove a pivotal moment in the 2024 election. Here’s a look at a few ways it could play out.

One: He drops out, endorses Trump

Kennedy and Trump are both slated to be in Arizona on Friday. Trump, for his part, is expected to hold a rally in Glendale while Kennedy will make his announcement in nearby Phoenix. 

With Kennedy’s event slated for 2 p.m. EST and Trump’s rally set for 4:00 p.m. EST, a Kennedy drop out and subsequent joint appearance with Trump is well within the realm of possibilities.

Such a development seems to be the most likely course for Kennedy. His running mate, Nicole Shanahan, confirmed earlier this week that the campaign was actively exploring a move to support Trump.

"There’s two options that we're looking at and one is staying in, forming that new party, but we run the risk of a Kamala Harris and Walz presidency because we draw more votes from Trump," she said during a podcast appearance. "Or we walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trump and explain to our base why we're making this decision.”

Kennedy’s son, Robert F. Kennedy III, leaked the footage of his conversation with Trump in which the former president said “I would love you to do something… I think it would be so good for you and so big for you. And we’re gonna win.” 

Kennedy apologized for the leak and blamed himself for not ordering a videographer to stop recording when the conversation with Trump began. As recently as last week, the Trump campaign seemed to consider the matter settled, with Trump campaign communications director Steven Cheung calling Kennedy “an environmental whack job” amid reports that he had sought a deal with the Harris campaign.

An endorsement from Kennedy would almost certainly prove a considerable boon to Trump. Shanahan, for her part, indicated that the campaign was pulling more voters from the Republican than Harris. While the composition of his support base has been the subject of intense speculation, there is little doubt that Kennedy would be able to direct at least some of his supporters to the Republican and Trump would need only slightly more than one-third of Kennedy’s backers to overtake Harris, provided the remainder opt to not vote at all.

Two: He drops out, endorses no one

Kennedy endorsing Trump does not yet appear to be a done deal, and Trump running mate JD Vance said this week that an endorsement is “completely separate from whether RFK gets a cabinet position.”

“I haven't spoken to RFK personally, but I know there's been a lot of communication back and forth between RFK and between this campaign,” he added.

With the Trump campaign seemingly non-committal, it may prove risky for Kennedy to throw his support behind the Republican. But with his poll numbers in free-fall and his funds effectively dried up, he has little remaining resources or momentum with which to continue campaigning.

Again, the immediate impact of such a decision remains unclear. While Kennedy no doubt currently commands some otherwise-would-be Trump voters, he certainly has drawn support from Democrats as well. Should he make no effort to direct his supporters to either camp, they could simply disperse back to the two major parties and ultimately have little impact on the state of the race.

Three: He keeps going

With roughly 10% of the support of either major party candidate, it seems next to impossible that Kennedy could win the presidency outright. Apart from funding and polling concerns, he has faced legal challenges to securing his place on the ballot in major states such as New York. Most of the legal challenges have been brought by entities aligned with the Democratic party.

But he has already secured his place on the ballot in at least 24 states and has secured the necessary signatures to appear in an additional 21, according to CBS News. After securing his place on the ballot, it would theoretically cost him nothing to simply remain a candidate while minimizing his campaigning.

Shanahan, for her part, observed that a strong performance from a Kennedy campaign in 2024 could have longer-term implications for the viability of a third-party surrounding him.

“There’s even public funds available if we get over 5% of the vote,” Shanahan said during an appearance on Impact Theory this week. “That’s worth something. That means that we can position for a real third-party election in 2028 where we don’t have to go around and spend tens of millions of dollars on ballot access, which means that we can spend all that time and money campaigning.”

Ben Whedon is an editor and reporter for Just the News. Follow him on X.