Biden holds steady 6-point lead over Trump less than 45 days from election

One model predicts close race akin to 2016 election.

Published: September 21, 2020 10:15am

Updated: September 21, 2020 5:54pm

President Trump continues to trail Joe Biden in the polls with just a few weeks remaining before the November election, according to a new Just the News Daily Poll with Scott Rasmussen.

Biden maintains a 6-point lead over Trump, with the Democratic nominee commanding 50% of likely voters to Trump's 44%. That's roughly equivalent to a 5-point lead Biden held a week ago and a four-point lead he held at the beginning of the month.

Just the News Poll, Who would you vote for in the Presidential election?
Just the News Daily Poll
With Scott Rasmussen


For the poll, Rasmussen developed two distinct models apart from the general survey, one predicting a heavy Republican turnout and one modeling a Democratic advantage in voters. 

"The Strong Republican turnout model shows the president within 3 points – exactly where the polling averages ended up in 2016," Rasmussen said. "That would suggest a very close race in the Electoral College." 

"The Strong Democratic turnout model shows Biden up 10 – a potential landslide," he also said, while pointing out that nearly half of all voters plan to ballot either early or by mail, which at this time would strongly favor Biden. 

"The turnout numbers suggest possible outcomes ranging from a narrow Trump victory to a substantial Biden victory," Rasmussen continued. "However, the range of likely outcomes may shift over the coming six weeks. Issues and events may change the dynamics of the race. Also, we will get a better handle on voter turnout – especially as we get into October."

The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Rasmussen from September 17-19, 2020. 

The sample included 773 Likely Voters, defined as those who say they are “Definitely going to vote” or “Very Likely to Vote” and who know how they will vote. The Likely Voter sample was 38% Republican, 39% Democrat, and 24% Independent.

To see this poll's cross-demographic tabulations, voting plans and voter turnout models, click here. 

To see this poll's methodology and sample demographics, click here

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