Trump narrows polling gap in battleground state poll average

Trump's support has risen while Biden's has fallen in the RCP battleground poll average

Updated: September 2, 2020 - 9:42am

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As the 2020 general election rapidly approaches President Trump appears to be closing the gap against Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in several all-important battleground states.

While Biden continues to lead Trump in the RealClearPolitics poll average of top battleground states — which includes Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona — the former vice president's lead has decreased over roughly the past month as his poll numbers have slipped while President Trump's have trended higher.

Biden on July 28 reached 49.4%, his highest so far this year, but has since trended downward to 48.0% as of August 29, while Trump has risen from 43.1% to 45.3% during that same period. 

An Aug. 21-23 Change Research/CNBC poll has Biden winning by 6 points in Michigan, 5 points in Wisconsin, 3 points in Florida and Pennsylvania, 2 points in Arizona and 1 point in North Carolina. "The margin of error, as traditionally calculated, is ±1.4% for the battleground and ±2.02% for the national poll," according to Change Research.

But Trump fares better in Trafalgar Group battleground state polls, tying and even beating Biden in some cases.

The organization's Minnesota poll conducted in mid-August has Trump running neck and neck with the former vice president, earning 46.5% compared to Biden's 46.9%. An Arizona poll conducted earlier in August shows the president with a narrow advantage over Biden, getting 46.2% compared to Biden's 44.8%. And a Michigan poll conducted in August similarly shows the president with a slight edge, securing 46.6% support compared to Biden's 45.2% The polls have  margins of error of 2.98%, 2.99% and 2.98% respectively.

The Republican National Convention was held Aug. 24-27 and came on the heels of the Democratic National Convention the week earlier. 

A Morning Consult poll released Saturday indicated that the president enjoyed a polling boost following the GOP convention that narrowed the gap at the national level between himself and Biden.

"A new Morning Consult poll conducted [Aug. 28] that asked 4,035 likely voters which candidate they would pick found Biden leading Trump by 6 percentage points, 50 percent to 44 percent. It marked a 4-point improvement from his standing heading into the convention on Aug. 23, when Biden led 52 percent to 42 percent," Morning Consult said. 

President Trump currently trails Biden by 6.2 points according to the RealClearPolitics general election poll average.

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