Republicans, Democrats in statistical dead heat ahead of midterms

Republicans need a net gain of five seats to take the majority

Updated: August 11, 2022 - 3:51pm

The Facts Inside Our Reporter’s Notebook

Polling averages have converged to show the Democrats and Republicans in a near dead heat going into the November midterm elections.

The FiveThirtyEight polling average for generic congressional ballot polls now shows Democrats with a minuscule 0.2% lead over Republicans. The GOP was consistently ahead in this metric since November of last year.

As the major parties compete across 435 congressional districts, the generic ballot average does not necessarily reflect the number of seats a party would win were the midterms held on any given day.

The RealClearPolitics (RCP) generic ballot average, meanwhile, shows Republicans with an even slimmer 0.1% lead, the lowest advantage the party has held in that metric since November 2021.

Republicans need a net gain of five seats to take the majority and the GOP is widely projected to accomplish that. The RCP House map projection currently places 222 seats in the Republican camp with an additional 32 up for grabs.

A GOP victory would position the party to block much of President Joe Biden's legislative agenda and to conduct a bevy of investigations they have vowed to undertake following the FBI raid on former President Donald Trump's Florida estate.