Trump gains in battlegrounds, national polling as Harris surge fades

Polling data increasingly shows former President Donald Trump gaining ground on Vice President Kamala Harris in both the national race and in key battlegrounds, suggesting that her debate performance has not fundamentally altered the race.

The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows the pair are tied at 47% support among likely voters nationwide. The current RealClearPolitics polling average shows Harris with a 1.9% lead, roughly where it has sat for all of September.

The outlet's Pennsylvania poll, however, showed Harris with a 50% to 46% lead over Trump, a development NYT pollster Nate Cohn indicated was a "bit of a puzzle."

But the NYT poll is something of an outlier for Pennsylvania. The RCP average for that state, which includes the survey, has Harris up by 1.0%. By contrast, comparable polling from Emerson College shows Trump with a one-point lead of 48% to 47%.

The Hill/Emerson College survey also showed Trump up 50% to 47% in Georgia, 49% to 48% in Arizona and Wisconsin; and tied in Nevada at 48%. Harris edged out Trump 49% to 48% in North Carolina and 49% to 47% in Michigan.

Even handing Nevada to Harris, that survey's results would give Trump enough electoral votes to win the White House. RCP's no toss up map currently assigns Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada to Harris while giving Trump North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, for a split of 276 to 262 electoral votes in Harris's favor.