Trump memo points to weak urban, strong rural turnout in positive sign for campaign

The Trump campaign is cautiously optimistic about its prospects in light of early voting data in key swing states.

In the seven main battlegrounds of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, early voting has shown a significant uptick in rural turnout compared to 2020 numbers.

Urban and female voters, typically Democratic-leaning, have seen turnout fall considerably, according to data from TargetSmart's Tom Bonier, a Democratic data expert.

With the except of North Carolina, those battlegrounds broke for President Joe Biden in 2020. Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan previously backed Trump in 2016.

"With Early Voting closed and Election Day on the horizon, Democrats are facing a massive turnout deficit," the campaign wrote in a Monday memo. "In every single battleground state, we see President Trump and Republicans outperforming elections past in absentee ballots and early votes cast."

The campaign further highlighted Democratic voter tendencies to vote before Election Day and questioned whether they would turnout disproportionately on the day.