As Trump and Harris fight close race, Republican Senate hopefuls lag behind

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are poised to compete closely for the White House in November, but many of the pivotal Senate races appear to noticeably favor the Democrats and Republican hopes for gains in the upper chamber appear slimmer than reclaiming the presidency.

In key states such as Nevada, Arizona, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Trump either leads Harris outright in most polls or is within striking distance of Harris. The same cannot be said, however, for most of the Republican Senate candidates who hope to enter the upper chamber, as many trail their Democratic opponents by 5% or more.

Republicans currently boast 49 seats in the Senate, meaning they will need a net gain of two seats to take control, or a single seat if they win the White House. Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.Va., is not seeking reelection and the seat is widely expected to go to Gov. Jim Justice, R-W.Va.

RealClearPolitics currently identifies seven Senate battleground states: Nevada, Arizona, Montana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. A win in only one would conceivably hand the GOP control of the Senate, but none appear likely to be easy Republican races.

Two states, Montana and Ohio, are not regarded as presidential battlegrounds and Trump is expected to easily win both. In both states, however, the Republican Senate nominees are far behind Trump in polling.

Speaking to The Hill in July, prior to President Joe Biden dropping out, National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Steve Daines expressed optimism that the races would become more competitive closer to the election.

“We’re going to continue to run like we’re 5 points behind, because right now, the polls show that. But it’s not lost on us that as we turn the corner into Labor Day and to the finish, you’re going to see these races tighten up,” he said at the time.

On the Democratic side, Biden’s departure from the ticket appears to have emboldened some Senate Democrats who were reluctant to appear publicly with him. Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., for instance, appeared alongside Harris at a rally in Philadelphia, Politico reported. Sen. Jack Rosen, D-Nev., for her part, is planning to join Harris at a Saturday rally in Las Vegas.

While some disparity between a state’s presidential and senatorial races is not uncommon, polling has shown a consistent pattern suggesting Trump himself enjoys more popularity than his down-ballot Republican allies. But many Republican Senate candidates face a distinct disadvantage in their respective states that is of little relevance to Trump's own contest.

"In most of the states it's because the Democratic candidate is an incumbent," pollster Scott Rasmussen told Just the News.

Montana

Montana appears the brightest prospect for the GOP senatorial hopefuls, with Republican Tim Sheehy currently boasting 49.0% support in the RCP polling average to incumbent Sen. Jon Tester’s, D-Mont., 45.5% for a lead of 3.5%. Trump, for his part, boasted a 21.0% lead over President Joe Biden when last that metric was updated. RCP does not currently have general election data for Montana featuring Vice President Kamala Harris. A recent Emerson College survey showed Trump with 55% to Harris’s 40% in the state.

Both the establishment and MAGA wings of the Republican Party have largely coalesced around Sheehy and the party primary was relatively smooth, apart from the less-than-one-week campaign of Rep. Matt Rosendale, R-Mont., who unexpectedly jumped into the race only to drop out shortly after Trump backed Sheehy. Rosendale unsuccessfully challenged Tester in 2018.

Ohio

In Ohio, moreover, Trump leads Harris by an average 11.5%, with 51.5% support to her 40.0%. Formerly, a battleground state, Trump flipped Ohio in 2016 and managed to keep in the Republican column in 2020. He has further tapped Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, as his running mate, which is expected to cement that lead

At the Senate level, however, the Trump-backed Bernie Moreno appears to be struggling against Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, who boasts 46.8% support to the Republican’s 41.8%, for a lead of 5.0%. The 16-point disparity between the presidential and Senate contests represents one of the most stark contrasts in the election cycle.

Potentially contributing to Moreno’s struggle was a brutal Republican primary that also featured state Sen. Matt Dolan and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose.

Arizona

Arizona is one of only two key battlegrounds in which the Republican candidate does not face an incumbent Democrat. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., was elected to her seat as a Democrat, but later left the party, and is not seeking reelection.

Trump is leading in Arizona by a slim 2.8% margin, earning 48.3% support to Harris’s 45.5%. The Republican Senate nominee, however, the Trump-backed Kari Lake, currently trails Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., by 3.4%. Lake earned 43.6% to Gallego’s 47.0% in the RCP average. The overall disparity between the presidential and Senate races stands at 6.2%.

Lake ran unsuccessfully in 2022 as the Republican candidate for governor. In the aftermath, she challenged the election results and emerged as a firebrand proponent of election integrity measures and fraud claims. The issue has often pitted her against members of her own party within the state, potentially contributing to her current standing.

Michigan

Michigan stands as the other key battleground with a vacant seat. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., is not seeking reelection. She was first elected to the Senate in 2000. The state was one of several “blue wall” states that Trump flipped in 2016, but lost in the 2020 election.

Harris appears to be on firmer footing in Michigan, leading Trump by an even 2.0%, with 48.3% to his 46.3%. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., meanwhile, leads Republican Mike Rogers by 5.8%,  with 46.5% to his 40.7%. Collectively, the figures account for a 7.8% split between races.

Nevada

Nevada faces a marginally larger split than Michigan, albeit not as much as Ohio. In the Sagebrush State, Trump leads Harris by 4.0%, with 47.5% to her 43.5%. On the Senate side, Republican Sam Brown trails Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., by 4.0%, earning 42.7% average support to Rosen’s 46.7%. The overall split stands at 8.0%.

While Republicans have struggled in Nevada for years, Gov. Joe Lombardo, R, managed to narrowly edge out incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak, D, in the 2022 election cycle.

“With how close recent POTUS elections have been, the state is right on the verge of going red in a federal race. It just hasn’t gotten there yet,” pollster Mike Noble, of Noble Predictive Insights, told The Deseret News in May.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, Trump has fallen slightly behind Harris, trailing by 0.5%. Harris earned 48.8% support to Trump’s 48.3% in the Dairy State. The Senate race is less competitive. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., currently leads Republican Eric Hovde by 6.0%, with 50.0% support to 44.0%.

Like Michigan, Trump narrowly won Wisconsin in 2016, but lost it to President Joe Biden in the 2020 contest. Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., managed to hold his seat in the 2022 midterms, albeit narrowly.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, Trump holds a 1.8% lead, beating out Harris with 48.4% to her 46.6%. Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., meanwhile, boasts 49.0% support to Republican Dave McCormick’s 42.7%, for a lead of 6.3%.

Trump also won Pennsylvania in 2016, though it flipped to Biden in 2020. In the 2022 cycle, Republicans nominated Dr. Mehmet Oz, whom polling suggested would win the seat going into election day. But then-Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, D, ultimately triumphed.

Ben Whedon is an editor and reporter for Just the News. Follow him on X.