Four possible paths for breaking the House GOP logjam and selecting the next speaker

Leaderless and entrenched in an unusual amount of personal acrimony, House Republicans are struggling to find a speaker candidate who can unite weary but still warring factions and move Congress back to regular business after two full weeks of drama. As one insider directly involved in the search colorfully put it: "We need a Switzerland with a sharp sword."

Translated for everyday Americans: Republicans need a neutral player who can walk with trust among the "five families" that make up the current GOP caucus but can swing a sword that can cut a deal with Democrats that extracts concessions on border security, spending cuts, and the right balance of war support for Israel and Ukraine.

The Herculean task has already gobbled up and spit out the two Republicans first entrusted with the job back in January: ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Majority Leader Steve Scalise. The rest of the leadership team – including Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York and Tom Emmer of Minnesota – have kept their powder dry and not tried to climb a ladder currently aflame with the rage of members angry that Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz forced the vacating of the Speaker’s chair without a clear path to a successor.

Also on life support is the idea that Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry of North Carolina can simply be granted or assume the powers of an acting speaker. That move was tried and abandoned quickly on Thursday amid evidence that two-thirds of the caucus would likely object, leaving a handful of moderates from New York and California and Democrats to impose it if brought to a House floor vote. That might still happen, but is on ice for the time being.

Meanwhile, Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, the House Judiciary Committee chairman who is a darling of the conservative Freedom Caucus and Trump World, has been the third man on deck. But he has tried and failed to win the required 217 votes twice by margins of 20 and 22 votes, respectively, leaving him to ponder a path forward. The chronic uncertainty has left even the most daring of GOP firebrands pleading for an outbreak of party unity.

"I've been voting for Jim Jordan and would be thrilled to see him become Speaker of the House. But here's the reality: we're [a] very, very fractured conference with a lot of hurts and frustration with each other," Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., told the "Just the News, No Noise" television show Thursday night. "I'm calling for unity because we need to remember who we are, who our enemies are. And that's the Democrats. They're destroying our country from the inside out."

"So what I'm calling for in our conference is people that are angry with one another, there needs to be apologies, egos need to be set aside, there needs to be a lot of talks. We've got to come together; we have to elect a Speaker of the House, not a temporary Speaker of the House," she said. "...And we have to get serious about getting our work done here in Washington."

Just the News interviewed more than three dozen GOP lawmakers and staffers on Wednesday and Thursday. They described the four next most viable paths for finding the next speaker.

Path 1: Jordan negotiates with the two dozen moderates who currently won’t back his speakership and McCarthy presides over a Mafia-style five families meeting to facilitate progress

This is the current path that came into focus Thursday night after a day of stops and starts. Jordan has the support of most of the conference, especially the oft-rambunctious Freedom Caucus on the right, and many traditional Republicans like McCarthy and Stefanik. Donald Trump is also firmly in his corner. Moderates in Biden districts and states, especially New York, are his problem, as well as some of the party's security hawks who distrust him on Ukraine war aid.

To keep the conservatives, Jordan must maintain a promise to eschew an omnibus spending package and get 12 individual agency spending bills passed and sent to the Senate that cut spending by at least $100 billion plus impose tighter security measures at the porous southern border.

To get the war hawks, he needs to promise separate votes on Israel war spending and Ukraine spending with final price tags that both sides can live with, which will be less than President Joe Biden wants – at about $100 billion – since a majority of Americans are souring on the Ukraine war for the first time.

But the moderates will want much more, including a promise of no federal shutdowns – which could take GOP leverage away in future budget talks with Biden and Senate Democrats – and a cure to what is known as the SALT tax penalty that keeps blue state taxpayers from getting the full deduction for their historically high state and local taxes. Conservatives – starting with Trump – engineered that tax penalty to try to create pressure on blue states to lower rising taxes, so they will be loath to give in.

One possibility for compromise: Jordan packages a temporary SALT relief bill – providing relief until inflation and economic growth and interest rates stabilize – with a permanent extension of the Trump tax cuts set to expire in 2025. If Jordan eschews a shutdown, he has to offer conservatives some leverage for the future battles with Democrats over the final budget. Whether there is something amenable to all sides is unclear, which makes a McCarthy-led meeting of the factions a potential tool to explore options.

Path 2: Republicans turn to a fresh, unexpected face in their House caucus: Byron Donalds.

Relatively new to Congress, Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida has wowed many in conservative circles – including Trump World – with his command of speaking, his inquisition of witnesses at oversight hearings, his ability to raise money, and his efforts to make friends and find solutions across the caucus. He'd be the first-ever black Speaker of the House, and at just 44 years old, would represent a generational change from an institution that often doesn't let leaders rise to the top until their 60s, 70s, and 80s.

But Donalds has left some hard feelings among traditional and moderate Republicans because he was part of the "gang of 20" who initially opposed McCarthy’s speakership during the marathon 15-rounds of voting in January. Since then, he has been supportive of McCarthy and did not vote to oust him when eight Republicans led by Gaetz joined all Democrats to fire a speaker for the time in history.

Donalds has also shown a mettle to extract more from negotiations than other Republicans, something the conservative base of the party longs for when the budget process moves to a negotiation between the GOP House, the Democratic Senate, and the Biden White House. Republicans from Trump on down blamed McCarthy for capitulating to the Democrats too quickly in May with the debt ceiling deal with Biden and in September with the temporary CR spending package with the Senate, failing to get any concessions for conservatives.

"I would have much preferred Kevin. He is a very good man," Trump told Just the News earlier this morning. "And he did something, he meant to do well, but nothing was gained by, you know, giving an extension. But nothing was gotten for either Republicans or for frankly, the country by doing that."

Path 3: The job search moves outside Congress: i.e. the draft Lee Zeldin project.

The Speaker of the House does not have to be an elected lawmaker. Hence, recently, Republicans momentarily entertained the notion of asking Trump to serve. But the 45th president is committed to trying to become the 47th president and has thrown his support behind Jordan.

Multiple lawmakers told Just the News that, at some point, the search for a speaker could move outside the marble halls of Congress since no current Republican in the caucus appears to have a clear path to the required 217 votes.

The most frequently mentioned named of an outsider is former Rep. Lee Zeldin, who was one of the party's most popular members during his time in the House and last year nearly pulled off the "New York miracle" in that state's blue-dominated governor's race, where he mustered one of the most successful GOP early vote efforts in history and single-handedly stopped a knife-wielding attacker on stage at a campaign event.

Zeldin is a military veteran, played a major role in unraveling the false Russia collusion narrative that targeted Trump, and has deep friendships from the Freedom Caucus to the moderate New York delegation. He also would be the first-ever Jewish speaker in a U.S. House confronting the Hamas war against Israel and anti-Semitism among some in its own Democratic ranks. (Imagine the anti-Israel Squad’s reaction reporting to work every morning on the House floor!)

Zeldin has many attractive qualities to seize the outsider role, but lawmakers said he would have to emerge a little later in the process after the House exhausts options like Jordan and Donalds because some traditionalists aren't keen to make this the moment the speaker precedent is broken with an outsider. That sentiment, however, could wane as the GOP's negatives rise from inaction and stalemate without a Speaker. Zeldin, thus far, is backing Jordan and even came to Washington this week to try to help his colleague from Ohio woo moderates from New York.

Path 4: Fall back to "McCarthy lite" by drafting one of the former Speaker’s lower ranking lieutenants

Emmer and Stefanik are the most likely choices, though Policy Committee Chairman Kevin Hearn could also get consideration. All three have kept their powder dry while allowing others to test and/or roil the waters.

Of the three McCarthy deputies, Emmer may have the most sympathy among the never-McCarthy conservatives since he worked hard to deliver what they wanted: no more temporary spending bills, regular order, and the full 12 appropriations bill.

Though he failed, he was viewed as an honest broker willing to listen to and engage with the Freedom Caucus when others were dismissing or lambasting it. Most moderates and traditionalists might eventually fall behind him if there was a signal the conservative wing of the party wouldn’t oppose him.

Even Gaetz, the chief McCarthy antagonist, has suggested he could support an Emmer candidacy.