Trump’s budget brinksmanship slims spending bill, but failure highlights inertia in House

President-elect Donald Trump’s last-minute intervention in budget negotiations produced a bill less than ten times the length of the original plan and saved taxpayers from funding a litany of Democratic agenda items, but the revised bill’s failure highlighted the inertia within the lower chamber hampering serious reform.

The House voted Thursday night to reject passage of the bill under suspension of the rules in a 174 to 235 vote. The government faces a Friday deadline to avert a shutdown and it is unclear if Congress will produce a third version.

Originally, lawmakers were poised to approve a 1,547-page bill that included a 47% congressional pay raise, a provision to help lawmakers fight House subpoenas, the renewal of a federal censorship operation, and other items opposed by conservatives. 

The revised bill was a mere 116 pages. The change came in the wake of public pressure from incoming Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) co-chiefs Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy over the original plan. The failure of the suspension vote, moreover, has highlighted the increasingly precarious position of House Speaker Mike Johnson and raised questions about his fate in Republican leadership.

Conservative frustrations with Johnson have persisted throughout his relatively brief tenure, with Freedom Caucus heavyweights and other budget hawks repeatedly criticizing his handling of spending negotiations and his apparent penchant for capitulating to left-wing demands.

Trump steps in

Johnson came under indirect fire from President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance on Wednesday, as the pair resolutely condemned a planned stopgap funding bill that included a litany of Democratic agenda items and significantly increased spending.

"The bill would make it easier to hide the records of the corrupt January 6 committee—which accomplished nothing for the American people and hid security failures that happened that day," Vance said. "This bill would also give Congress a pay increase while many Americans are struggling this Christmas."

"If Democrats threaten to shut down the government unless we give them everything they want, then CALL THEIR BLUFF,” they urged.

That joint statement followed intense public pressure from Musk and Ramaswamy, who highlighted egregious components of the bill online and urged lawmakers to reject it.

“Any member of the House or Senate who votes for this outrageous spending bill deserves to be voted out in 2 years!” Musk posted on X on Wednesday.

Lawmakers subsequently scrapped the bill and reached the new agreement on Thursday that failed to win even a majority in the lower chamber.

Trump questions Johnson’s survival

Trump told Fox News on Wednesday that he expected Johnson would “easily” retain the speaker’s gavel if he acted quickly and eliminated Democratic “traps” in the bill. He further called on Republicans to back a better bill or face a primary. He declined to commit to backing Johnson when pressed by reporters on Thursday.

“We'll see. What they had yesterday was unacceptable," Trump said, according to Punchbowl News. "In many ways it was unacceptable. It’s a Democrat trap."

The revised agreement Johnson produced attracted plenty of scrutiny from Republicans who suggested it did not represent a material improvement over the last spending package. Musk, for his part, amplified voices suggesting that Johnson’s continued leadership may undermine DOGE and work against the implementation of Trump’s. The DOGE co-chief reshared a post from Breitbart News’s Matt Boyle highlighting his experience in dealing with Johnson on other budget battles.

“First he will lie to you and say he will fight the actual fight NEXT TIME. Then he will claim he agrees with the concerns conservatives are raising and the issues are real and he totally understands,” Boyle posted. “Then he will text or call you and try to ‘talk it through’ or ‘explain’ things. But he will always do what the swamp wants when push comes to shove.”

“So eventually we hit a breaking point where he has to go — the easiest time to do it leverage wise would be at the regularly scheduled speakership election on Jan. 3 because you don’t need to first go through a motion to vacate,” he added.

It’s not up to Trump

When the new Congress convenes, Johnson must secure the support of a majority of the lower chamber to retain the gavel. But Republicans are set to hold a narrow majority, made even slimmer by Trump tapping House members for administration roles. The president-elect’s influence on the process, moreover, may be limited, as GOP lawmakers have previously ousted a key ally from the chair.

In January of 2023, Trump endorsed then-Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., for the job, but frustrated House conservatives blocked him from the post through several rounds of voting. Only a handful of irate Republicans could block Johnson from the post, barring Democratic crossover support and some lawmakers have already floated the idea of replacing him publicly. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, D- N.Y., has reportedly said his party won’t help Johnson keep the gavel, Fox News reported, meaning the matter could come down to a handful of dissenters.

“I’d be open to supporting [Elon Musk] for Speaker of the House,” MTG posted. “DOGE can only truly be accomplished by reigning in Congress to enact real government efficiency. The establishment needs to be shattered just like it was yesterday. This could be the way.

“Now conservatives are clamoring for a clean CR and a debt limit increase! Isn’t that what Speaker McCarthy was vacated for? How times change,” Thomas Massie posted.

Who’s on deck?

Johnson only clinched the gavel after the failure of several Republican candidates for speaker to secure enough support within the conference. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., the number two Republican, already failed to convince the conference to back after the ouster of McCarthy. 

Whip Tom Emmer, R-Ind., meanwhile, earned opposition from Trump himself and conservative heavyweight Jim Jordan also failed. Accordingly, Republicans may have to go back entirely to square one to find a new leader for the lower chamber.