Poll: Harris, Trump statistically even in North Carolina

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a statistical dead heat in the battleground of North Carolina, a new poll released just days ahead of absentee by mail ballots going out says.

With margin of error at +/- 3%, the Harris-Tim Walz ticket for Democrats leads Republicans’ Trump-J.D. Vance 48%-47%. The poll from the ECU Center for Survey Research has just 3% undecided, and a poll question on vice president picks shows selections of the Minnesota governor or the Ohio senator, respectively, was not detrimental with voters and if anything, more than affirmed their choice.

Mailing of absentee ballots was scheduled for Friday; a judge's order may delay it in relation to litigation filed by former presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

“Kamala Harris has shaken up the presidential election,” said Dr. Peter Francia, director of the poll at East Carolina University. “When Donald Trump’s opponent was Joe Biden, it seemed very likely that North Carolina’s electoral college votes would go again to the Republican presidential candidate for the fourth consecutive time. Now, that seems significantly less certain. The nomination of Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate has moved North Carolina squarely into the category of toss-up states.”

Throughout the campaign, from Biden to Harris, the Old North State has been lodged with six others as a consensus battleground. The seven states represent 93 electoral college votes among them. Pennsylvania has 19, North Carolina and Georgia 16 each, Michigan 15, Arizona 11, Wisconsin 10 and Nevada six.

Harris is trying to do more than break a four-cycle run in North Carolina. Since Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson carried the state and won the presidency in 1964, the 14 cycles since have had just two others from the party carry the state. And neither Jimmy Carter (1976) or Barack Obama (2008) could do it again four years later, with Carter ultimately becoming a one-term president and Obama surviving the setback to finish eight years in the White House.

Trump, scheduled to be in Charlotte on Friday to address the National Fraternal Order of Police, has won the state twice. In 2016 he beat Hillary Clinton 49.8%-46.2% and in 2020 he beat President Joe Biden 49.9%-48.6%. Former President Gerald Ford and Sen. John McCain are the dubious names of the last 60 years he’s trying to avoid joining.

On vice president choices, Trump supporters were 96% more likely to vote for him or the selection had no impact; for Harris supporters, 97% said they were more likely to vote for her or the selection had no impact.

On the matter of results accurately reflecting votes cast, 78% chose either “a lot of confidence” or “some confidence.”

The poll was conducted Aug. 26-28, the week after the Democratic National Convention. Sampling was of 920 likely voters, and the pollster says confidence level of results is 95%.

The tight presidential race is of no surprise, nor is the confirmation of separation by gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein against Mark Robinson. The Democratic attorney general began to lead and pull away in the summer, and Tuesday’s poll release has him up 47%-41% on the Republican lieutenant governor closely tied to Trump. Undecided is 11%, same as a June poll from ECU.

The poll asked about the most important issue in deciding votes. As has been the case all calendar year, money is the winner. The poll had 30% say inflation and the overall cost of living, and 22% said the economy in general. Abortion was third at 14%, a tick above border security (13%). Health care (4%) led the rest of the responses.