538 now favors Republicans to win the Senate

The forecaster has typically favored Democrats to hold the Senate.

Updated: November 1, 2022 - 6:50pm

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Amid reports of Republicans surging in tight Senate contests, election forecaster 538 now narrowly favors Republicans to take the upper chamber in the November midterm elections.

As of Tuesday evening, the forecaster gives the GOP a 51% chance of taking the Senate to 49% for the Democrats. The forecaster has typically favored Democrats to hold the Senate, with the GOP last commanding favorable chances in that metric on July 25 of this year.

In mid-September, 538 gave Democrats a 71% chance of holding the upper chamber. It currently favors Republicans to win hot races in Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada, which would result in a 51-seat majority for the GOP, barring major upsets.

The flip comes on the same day that fellow election forecaster RealClearPolitics updated its projection to forecast a Republican win in the New Hampshire Senate contest. RCP projects the GOP will command a 54-seat majority after the midterms. RCP has typically been more bullish on Republican prospects than 538.