Oz takes the lead in PA Senate race after Fetterman debate stumbles: poll

Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz has overtaken his Democratic rival, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, in the Pennsylvania Senate race following the Democrat's much-critiqued performance in the race's sole debate earlier this week.

In the latest InsiderAdvantage poll, Oz led Fetterman by 2.7% among likely voters with 47.5% support to 44.8%. That lead is just inside the survey's +/- 3.6% margin of error, making the race a statistical tie. Conducted Oct. 26 among 750 likely voters, the survey is the first to show Oz leading in the race and the first to feature a survey period exclusively following the debate.

Fetterman lead with voters aged 65 or older, attracting 52.5% of their support to Oz's 40.1% while the Republican led with voters aged 18-39, 46.9%-44.0%, and voters aged 40-64, 53.4% to 39.3%.

RealClearPolitics currently gives Fetterman a narrow, 0.3% lead overall, but still projects Oz to win the seat. Fetterman formerly held a commanding lead over his Republican opponent, averaging 8.7-points ahead as recently as August, per RCP. That lead, however, steadily declined amid mounting concerns over the Democrat's health.

After suffering a stroke in May, four days before winning the party primary, Fetterman came under increasing pressure to publicly debate Oz amid speculation that he was in too poor of health to serve in office. Prior to the debate, news broke that Fetterman's physician had cleared him to "work full duty" in elected office, though it was later revealed that said doctor had donated to his campaign.

The pair squared off in Tuesday night's debate during which Fetterman repeatedly struggled to form coherent sentences and clearly answer moderator questions.

The same survey revealed a much less competitive race for governor, with Pennsylvania Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro leading Republican challenger Doug Mastriano by nearly 8 points, 50.2% to 41.8%.

Pennsylvania is one of several key battleground states that will decide which party takes control of the Senate in November. The pair are battling to replace retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, who served one term in office.