What to watch for in the battle for the White House on Election Night

After four years, Americans are returning to the polls to cast their votes for president of the United States. Former President Donald Trump stands on the cusp of a historic comeback while Vice President Kamala Harris could emerge the first female president in U.S. history.

The election is unlikely to be called on Tuesday evening, but some early calls in key states could signal the direction the election is heading.

A former U.S. president has not managed to return to the White House for a non-consecutive term since Grover Cleveland won in 1892. The election has also witnessed a sitting U.S. president, Joe Biden, decline to seek reelection, a development not seen since Lyndon B. Johnson chose not to run in 1968.

Trump survived two assassination attempts throughout the race, sustaining a gunshot wound to the ear in the first attempt. Now, on the verge of a historic election, the race is likely to come down to a scant seven "battleground" states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada. Of those seven, all save North Carolina broke for Biden in 2020.

Polling data ahead of the election showed each state close, within the margin of error, though Trump has generally led by small margins in most. Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes will present the biggest prize of the night. Georgia and North Carolina boast 16 each while Michigan ranks fourth with 15. 

While each state is expected to be a tight race, early calls for either candidate on the East Coast states could spell an early evening for election viewers. Should Harris lose Pennsylvania and Michigan, for example, a Trump victory – garnering the needed 270 electoral college votes – would be highly likely. Conversely, a Harris win in the Sun Belt would complicate Trump’s ability to reach 270, barring an upset. Some analysts have suggested Trump could shock the nation with exactly such upsets in Democratic-leaning states like Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine.

Trump has campaigned extensively in the traditionally Democratic northeast, especially in his former home state of New York. He previously insisted he could carry the Empire State, pointing to former Rep. Lee Zeldin’s, R-N.Y., nearly successful run for governor in 2022. Despite Trump’s efforts, however, neither New York nor neighboring New Jersey are expected to be competitive.

Ultimately, victory in some of the battlegrounds is likely to come down to movement in a few key demographic blocs that Republicans have labored to win over this cycle. Among Trump’s final stops on Monday was Reading, Pennsylvania, a heavily Latino area in the Keystone State.

Polling data ahead of the election has suggested that Trump is on track to win the highest share of the Latino vote of any Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2004. Trump has also worked to make inroads in the black community and some data has shown him gaining ground with black males. Women have drifted toward Harris in the Democrats in recent years and a turnout among that bloc could prove pivotal.

"You know, we're cutting into their support among African Americans, among Hispanics, among suburban women, among youth voters," Trump-aligned pollster John McLaughlin said Monday on the "John Solomon Reports" podcast. "We're definitely building a new coalition that has the possibility to be a majority coalition, but you have to vote."

"And tomorrow is the day where, you know, like Pennsylvania, most of the votes will be cast on election day, and about half the votes will be cast on election day in Wisconsin and Michigan," he added.

On Monday, the Trump campaign released a memo highlighting low urban and female turnout in the seven main battlegrounds. Rural turnout, typically an indicator for Republican enthusiasm, was much higher compared to 2020.