Less than a month from midterms, Bloomberg says '100% ' chance U.S. goes into recession in next year

Probability jumps from 65% as economic outlook worsens.

Published: October 18, 2022 12:22pm

Updated: October 18, 2022 12:33pm

A major U.S. election forecaster is projecting an all-but-certain recession hitting the United States in the next year, a high-profile prediction that could deal a serious blow to Democrats looking to pick up seats in the November elections next month. 

Bloomberg said on Monday that its "latest recession probability models" by staff economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger "forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%."

That estimate is "up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update," the outlet said. 

Democrats have been scrambling to shore up their electoral chances ahead of next month's critical midterms amid pervasive economic difficulties including historically high inflation. 

Economists have warned that the U.S. could be on the verge of tipping into a mild-to-severe recession, with the economic turmoil stemming in large part from pandemic policies including shutdowns and massive stimulus bills. 

Bloomberg noted that its own model was more pessimistic than estimates from other experts. 

"A separate Bloomberg survey of 42 economists predicts the probability of a recession over the next 12 months now stands at 60%, up from 50% a month earlier," the magazine said.

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