Another day, another October surprise

Typically regarded as a one-off, last-minute event that fundamentally shakes the balance of the election, the “October surprise” appears to have become something of a daily occurrence this year, with a litany of normally tumultuous developments seemingly stealing the news cycle in rapid succession.

In an election season that has already seen two assassination attempts on one major party candidate and the drop-out of the incumbent commander-in-chief after the primary, one could be forgiven for thinking that there exists little room for more genuinely shocking events that might alter the dynamics of the race. 

And yet, in the past week alone, Americans have been bombarded with a series of exactly that, from a catastrophic hurricane ravaging an ill-prepared mountain region, to a labor strike effectively shutting down shipping all along the East Coast, to a major escalation in the Middle East, to a bombshell court filing in a criminal case against a former president.

With each event firing within just days of one another, media outlets have pivoted in quick succession to cover each, leaving little time for the public to process the impact of any one development. Here’s a look at the raucous start to the election’s final stretch.

Hurricane Helene

The major storm ravaged much of the American South in late September, inflicting major damage in Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and especially western North Carolina. The mountainous region has witnessed considerable flooding, rendering many towns wholly inaccessible by road.

The death toll has thus far reached around 200 and authorities have begun to airlift in relief supplies to the impacted areas.

Former President Donald Trump seized on the federal response and heavily criticized Vice President Kamala Harris for continuing with her planned campaign events instead of rushing to aid the hurricane victims. The former president, for his part, appeared in Valdosta, Ga., this week to aid with the relief efforts and distribute supplies. President Biden spent the weekend of the hurricane's landfall on the beach at his home in Delaware.

Ivanka Trump, for her part, arrived in Hickory, N.C., this week to deliver meals and supplies to residents, as well as to hand out Starlink units without cost to help victims access the internet. Donald Trump coordinated with SpaceX owner Elon Musk on the distribution of the Starlink units.

President Joe Biden, on Wednesday, surveyed the impact of the hurricane in an aerial tour of the region. Harris, for her part, visited Georgia and the Carolinas on Wednesday.

Longshoremen Strike

Beginning at midnight on Oct. 1, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) launched a strike along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico amid a contract dispute with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX). The union represents tens of thousands of port workers and the strike has effectively shut down the import and export of key goods for half of the nation’s ports.

The development has reportedly led to violence in port cities such as Baltimore as striking workers have attempted to stop trucks from entering some facilities. Lawmakers in the northeast, such as Gov. Kathy Hochul, D-N.Y., have attempted to limit the impact of the strike, though they have warned of the likely impact on the availability of goods.

"We’re deeply concerned about the impact that a strike could have on our supply chains, especially when it comes to critical goods like medical supplies and others," the governor said Monday.

Biden has indicated he will stay out of the labor dispute and will not invoke the Taft-Hartley Act to force the strikers back to work, saying “I don’t believe” in the act. Some businessmen, such as Gristedes CEO John Catsimatidis, have speculated that the president may be “getting even” with Harris over his supposed ouster from the Democratic ticket by allowing the situation to deteriorate.

Trump, for his part, has blamed the strike on inflation and the economic policies of the current administration.

"This is only happening because of the inflation brought on by Kamala Harris’ two votes for massive, out-of-control spending, and her decision to cut off energy exploration," he said this week. "Americans who thrived under President Trump can’t even get by because of Kamala Harris - this strike is a direct result of her actions."

The port strike saw longshoremen reach a tentative agreement on Thursday evening, CNN reported.

More war in the Middle East

The Islamic Republic of Iran on Monday launched a volley of ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for the country’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon. The assault marked the second direct Iranian attack on Israel of the year, after it previously staged a drone assault on the country in April.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed that Iran “will pay” for the attack, which followed Israeli confirmation of ground operations in Lebanon. The conflict has persisted since the Oct. 7 Hamas raid on Israel, which prompted the Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip. Though it has already spilled into neighboring nations such as Lebanon and Syria, the fighting threatens to erupt into a wider war with Iran’s direct involvement.

The Trump campaign, moreover, has been briefed on “real and specific” threats to his life from the Iranian government. The former president has further excoriated the current White House for allowing the foreign situation to escalate to this point.

"We have a non-existent president and a non-existent vice president who should be in charge, but nobody knows what's going on,” he said at a recent rally. "I've been talking about World War Three for a long time, and I don't want to make predictions, because the predictions always come true."

Jack Smith tries to resuscitate his Jan. 6 case

While the first three developments could conceivably prove of benefit to Trump by drawing negative attention to the policies and actions of the current White House, the fourth major development threatens to paint him in a bad light.

Special counsel Jack Smith on Wednesday submitted a filing in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia arguing that Trump should not enjoy presidential immunity from prosecution in the face of Jan. 6 charges.

Smith’s 165-page filing aims to assert that the charges he levied against Trump in an indictment after the Supreme Court ruled on immunity allege conduct that falls outside the scope of the president’s protections.

"The defendant asserts that he is immune from prosecution for his criminal scheme to overturn the 2020 presidential election because, he claims, it entailed official conduct. Not so," Smith wrote. "Although the defendant was the incumbent President during the charged conspiracies, his scheme was fundamentally a private one. Working with a team of private co-conspirators, the defendant acted as a candidate when he pursued multiple criminal means to disrupt, through fraud and deceit, the government function by which votes are collected and counted—a function in which the defendant, as President, had no official role."

The Supreme Court, earlier this year, ruled that the president enjoys immunity for constitutional acts and presumed immunity for official acts, but not for private ones. Smith had already charged Trump before the decision, but submitted a revised indictment to account for the court decision. Trump has pleaded not guilty.

The Wednesday filing provided a lengthy thesis asserting that Trump’s efforts to challenge the 2020 election results did not qualify as official acts, despite him occupying the White House at the time. The dispute is likely to return to the Supreme Court and the case is not expected to proceed to trial before the election.

Nevertheless, the submission of Smith’s filing has dominated headlines since it became public and reignited media concern with Jan. 6, an issue upon which Democrats have seized to paint Trump as a “threat to democracy.”

Trump himself characterized the filing as “falsehood-ridden” and contended that it merely represented a last-minute attempt to interfere in the election and prevent his return to the White House.